Voters will head to the polls today – or not – to choose a new state assemblyman, and a political observer believes the by-election “will be won by those who can push voters to come out to vote”.
Hisomuddin Bakar, head of the pollster firm Ilham Centre, said there was unhappiness with both the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional alliance and with PAS, backbone of Perikatan Nasional.
Yesterday, Ilham Centre said the race was too close to call, with three factors set to determine the results: how Umno supporters vote; who the youngsters will support; and the Chinese voter turnout.
But a recurrent sense of discontent appears evident toward both the two rival coalitions.
Hisomuddin said Pakatan Harapan candidate Joohari Ariffin may be able to enjoy some fortune through Umno diehards, who had been left feeling betrayed by PAS after many of them voted for the Islamic party at the state assembly elections last year.
These Umno loyalists had voted for PN in protest against BN working with PH.
“Large sections of Umno supporters are upset with PAS who has yet to ‘santuni’ or get close to them after the 2023 polls. They feel neglected by PAS and might divert their votes to PH in support of the unity coalition,” he told FMT.
On the other hand, he said Sungai Bakap’s Chinese community were “not in the mood” to come out to vote in the by-election, particularly feeling disgruntled with the retargeting of diesel subsidies.
He added that these Chinese voters are key to deciding if PH will win. Nonetheless, he said their unhappiness with PH-BN would not push them to vote for PN’s Abidin Ismail.
“(Despite being unhappy with the unity government) most of the Chinese are not going to vote for PN. The number of them skipping the polls are likely to be as high as the last state elections.”
Based on data from the 2023 polls, Sungai Bakap comprises 59.36% Malay voters, 22.54% Chinese, 17.39% Indian, and 0.71% from other ethnicities.
Joohari is a long time, well-regarded teacher while his rival, Abidin, was formerly an aide to the late assemblyman Nor Zamri Latiff, who died on May 24.
Merdeka Center’s Ibrahim Suffian said more local issues like the rise in Penang water tariffs have also caused some discontent among Sungai Bakap folk, believing that a huge chunk of voters are undecided this time around.
Nonetheless, Ibrahim said voters appeared to have taken a liking to Joohari, who is said to be more well-spoken and interpersonal in interacting with the people.
Hisomuddin said Joohari and Abidin have a near-equal shot at winning but he believed the latter from PAS has a “very slight advantage”, based on focus group discussions with voters the past two weeks.
The final turnout of voters will naturally shape how the poll turns out, with Hisomuddin expecting PN’s chances to be “shaky” if less than 65% of voters head out to cast their ballots.
“Ultimately, this election will be won by those who can push voters to come out to vote,” he said.
PKR first wrested Sungai Bakap from Barisan Nasional in the 2008 general election and retained it for another three terms before losing it to PN last year.
Young voters make up a big chunk of the electorate, with 16,526 of them aged 21 to 39. The constituency has only 57 police personnel and their spouses registered as voters, with no representation from military or overseas voters.
PH and Umno hold a two-thirds majority in the 40-seat Penang assembly with 29 seats, while the remaining 10 are held by PN, of which PAS holds six.