Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia said Mahdzir might face a repeat in two weeks of his poor outing in Padang Terap at the 2022 parliamentary elections, when he secured only 28.7% of the vote as the Barisan Nasional candidate.
“It’s hard to see him being competitive because he lost by almost 11,000 votes in the last general election. He did manage to increase his vote tally, but by less than 1,000 votes, even though there was an increase of almost 10,000 eligible voters,” he told FMT.
Azmil said he believes that Umno supporters in Pedu will most likely switch allegiance to Perikatan Nasional, or even abstain from voting, as they are unhappy with the cooperation between Umno and DAP in the unity government coalition.
‘Umno is the problem’
“There is not much that Mahdzir can do: it’s his party (Umno) that’s problematic,” he said.
Azmil said Sanusi Nor of PAS, who became menteri besar in 2018, “is way too popular in the state, especially among young Malays”.
Mahdzir, who is Kedah Barisan Nasional chief, was also once a Kedah menteri besar, serving one term from 2005 to 2008.
In the 2022 parliamentary elections last November, he lost by 10,959 votes in Padang Terap to Nurul Amin Hamid of PAS. In Pedu, he will be going against Radzi Amin, also of PAS.
Political analyst Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said the people of Pedu still strongly support PAS and they will rally behind Sanusi.
“PAS is still too formidable. Some say that Sanusi’s antics will backfire on PAS, but Kedah people like Sanusi standing up to the federal government, and this will trickle down to other places, including Pedu,” he said.
However, those aged 21-39 may not be easily swayed by racial rhetoric, he said.
Playing the Penang card
Mahdzir can increase his chances of winning by using Sanusi’s own words against him, said Azmi. Mahdzir could then convince the people of Kedah to vote for the unity government for Kedah to experience the same prosperity as Penang.
“He should campaign to demonstrate to the people that Kedah’s state government could be friendlier to Penang and the federal government.
“The prosperity of Penang can be easily used in a similar fashion to Sanusi saying Selangor is prosperous due to its proximity to Kuala Lumpur, or how Johor prospers due to its proximity to Singapore, this kind of campaign would be more effective towards the younger voting group.
“Mahdzir cannot be rhetorical, he has to be factual and contemporary in his campaigns,” Azmi said.
Oh Ei Sun from the Pacific Research Institute believes that the deciding factor would be the religious outlook of the candidates, noting that those that are perceived to be the most religious would be on the winning side.
“It would appear that the current major narrative in these state elections goes beyond the conventional appeal of individual candidates or even parties, but more their perceived religiosity.
“So those who appear to be more religious or affiliate themselves with the more religious side would stand a higher chance of winning,” he said.