It is likely to suffer a loss of RM11 million in its first year and a surplus is only expected in the fifth year onwards, the state assembly heard today.

Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow (PH-Padang Kota) said the 30km LRT line, with 22-stations leading to the airport, is expected to earn RM20 million and enjoy a ridership of seven million passengers by 2027.

He said that number is expected to increase to 16 million riders by 2032, with a revenue of RM50 million.

He said the cost of operating and maintaining the transit line would be RM32 million by 2027, rising to RM40 million by 2032.

It was reported that construction of the transit line is expected to cost RM8 billion and would begin in June next year. It would take five years to build.

Chow said public transport has never been a profit-oriented enterprise and relied on government funding to stay afloat.

Citing the London Underground rapid transit system, or The Tube, he said the 156-year-old system was still funded by the government.

“Successful transit models, such as the one in Singapore, rely on government support to maintain and upgrade such public transport assets.

“Similarly, the Penang government at first will bear the deficit cost of the LRT line. We will come up with a sustainable model to pay for the costs,” he said during his winding-up speech today.

He said hence the 40:60 ratio of public transport to private vehicle use target was envisioned for a realistic outlook for the LRT service in Penang, with a target of 42 million passengers.

Chow said the government was not expecting 42 million passengers in the first year but a gradual increase of passengers over the years.

Highway won’t be jammed in 7 to 10 years

Chow also defended the state’s plan to build a 20km highway, going through the spine of the island. He said no matter how good a public transport system, the increase in the number of private vehicles was inevitable.

He denied claims by groups which said the Pan Island Link 1 (PIL 1) highway would get congested again in “seven to 10 years” once built, saying the impact assessments never indicated such findings.

“In Hong Kong, 90% of the people are on public transport, but yet, they build new roads and highways. And the cost of doing so is about RM45 billion, similar to our RM46 billion Penang Transport Master Plan (PTMP).

“We are being responsible in building better roads for a growing population,” he said.

Chow also dismissed PIL 1’s comparison to the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) in terms of cost and length. He said PIL 1 would be mostly tunnelled through the hills.

“The size of the tunnels is three times those in the ECRL. The PIL 1 also has a 250m suspension bridge.

“The scope of work and technical expertise for this project cannot be compared to other projects,” he said.

Catering to 2.3 to 3 million population by 2050

Chow said the LRT and PIL 1 highway are two of the starting projects to meet future transportation demands as the population grows to “at least 2.3 million” by 2050.

In answering claims that the population estimate was bloated to justify the PTMP, he said the estimate was a realistic one.

Chow said in the 1970s, Penang’s population was just 776,000, compared with today’s 1.77 million people, which was an increase of 128% in about 50 years.

“I say from 2020 to 2050, we expect an increase of a million. If not one million, there would be an increase of 500,000 to 700,000 people.

“We estimate that when the three islands are reclaimed to the south, there could be 2.34 million to three million people in 2050.

“I know the NGOs will question me on these figures, but this is based on realistic projections.

“To compare our population to other cities such as London in unrealistic, as London has its own dynamic features,” he said.

He said those doubting the population figures can refer to the projected population estimates provided by the Global Cities Institute in Ontario University and the Greater London Authority.

Meanwhile, he said PTMP’s first project, the Air Itam-Lim Chong Eu Expressway bypass, on which work started on Nov 2, would be supervised fully by the federal Public Works Department (JKR).

He said a team of JKR experts will be permanently attached to the project. All safety measures and other requirements will be strictly followed, he added.

Later, the state assembly adjourned sine die after approving the 2020 state budget of RM792.66 million. The assembly is expected to convene again in the first quarter of next year.