Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS) chief executive Wan Saiful Wan Jan said PPBM was by and large seen as the opposition’s contender to Umno for the Malay votes.
Noting that other opposition parties had reached a limit in winning Malay support, he added that PPBM was offering “a completely new push into the Malay heartland”.
However, the party is also demanding a fair share of mixed seats where PH has a higher chance of winning, he said.
“PPBM leaders… argue that Pakatan can win over mixed seats only if Malay voters in those areas are persuaded to its side, and that this will happen only if PPBM is present.
“Thus, if PPBM is the reason for Pakatan to win in mixed seats, its vital contribution must be reciprocated in the form of seats in mixed areas as well.
“Seat allocation among Pakatan parties is therefore very important for PPBM’s longer-term survival,” he said in an opinion piece carried by Singapore’s Straits Times today.
In PH’s seat distribution for Peninsular Malaysia, PPBM was allocated the lion’s share of 52 parliamentary constituencies. PKR was given 51, DAP 35 and Amanah 27.
In a recent study published by the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, Wan Saiful had said that PPBM would have a fighting chance if it contests in mixed-race seats instead of focusing on Malay-majority seats won by Umno at the last polls.
He added that PH’s reliance on PPBM to secure Malay-majority seats had created a dilemma for the party as Umno had won those seats with big majorities and any significant swing in Malay support was unlikely.
“The areas where they are expected to win are also the areas that are the hardest to win,” he said.
“Thus, even though PPBM seems to be taking the challenge and the responsibility in their stride, this is clearly one heavy burden for a fledgling party to shoulder.”
In his column, Wan Saiful added that PPBM faced a “major problem” in shaking Umno’s influence over female voters, with a survey in Johor by the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute showing only 17% favour the party.
Likewise, it would be difficult for PPBM to convince Malay voters who are suspicious of its association with DAP in the opposition pact, he said.
“There is a tendency among Malay voters to associate the rise of DAP with the rising political clout of Malaysian Chinese, and by extension, the erosion of Malay political power.
“Thus, voting for any party that helps DAP get into government is tantamount to jeopardising the Malays’ special position.
“The route towards winning Putrajaya is paved with many challenges, even for the master politician. None of the polls is siding with Dr Mahathir at the moment. This will be an uphill battle for him,” he said.