At the same time, they do not have much faith in the opposition coalition or its ability to govern the state if it takes power.
So, it is likely that, buoyed by local sentiment, BN can hold on to power in Johor but its victory will be slim.
These are among the findings of Serina Rahman, visiting fellow at the Malaysia programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute of Singapore.
She said in a comment piece in Channel NewsAsia that her discussions, interviews and conversations with Johor voters about the 14th general election (GE14) over the last six months revealed that there was no guarantee which coalition would win.
Although Johor has always been a guaranteed win for BN, she said, there is no predicting what will happen this general election.
She said, for instance, while older rural voters who had benefitted from Felda dismissed graft allegations against it, and even the 1MDB-related scandal, the young were concerned about these issues.
Rural residents were also grateful to Prime Minister Najib Razak and his father Razak Hussein for the success of Felda but were concerned about rising costs of living and petrol.
“But Umno can breathe easier, for Felda elders see these as the fault of Chinese businessmen and global economic conditions,” said Serina.
At the same time, these youths are not convinced that the opposition is capable of properly managing a state.
“For these voters, if they had to identify a second choice, it would be PAS because of their perceived consistent stance on Muslim issues.”
Serina quoted a survey commissioned by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute that showed semi-urban and urban voters in Johor were satisfied with the administration of Johor and the state leadership.
“But a dissatisfaction with the federal government is acute. Voters in this group attribute increases in costs of living and petrol to them, and say they’re tired of the allegations of corruption and incompetence.
“In all this, the Johor state leadership is completely exonerated.”
Serina noted that younger women were more concerned about how to make ends meet than who would win the next election. Although older women reminisced with fondness about Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s tenure as prime minister, they felt his alliance with old foes in the opposition had “poisoned him and his party”.
Male Umno supporters in west Johor meanwhile have gone through the gamut of emotions.
“From unflinching support for the ruling party to confusion when former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad resigned, to anger when former deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin was dismissed.
“The frustration is deeply visceral.
“In recent focus group discussions I conducted, many have expressed disgust at both the ruling Barisan Nasional and the opposition, citing a lack of honesty, transparency and good governance at all levels.”
Many voters told Serina only cronies and family members with the right connections would gain anything from any government. Some fishermen told her their time would be better spent going out to sea than bothering to vote.
Some also told Serina they wanted to see a younger leadership take over the country.
“Others opine that what is needed for the nation is someone like the Johor sultan, or the next in line to the Johor throne, Tunku Ismail Idris, who do what they say and have no qualms about putting their foot down if the people suffer or the state is put in a disadvantageous situation.”
However, Serina concluded, Umno’s hold on Johor is so strong that even with reduced support and a lower voter turnout, the ruling power will likely maintain control of the state, albeit with a smaller majority.
“Given Johor voters’ general satisfaction with state governance and economy and their profound respect for the sultan, Mahathir’s tumultuous history with royalty and his disdain for the Bangsa Johor identity might be the opposition’s undoing in this state.”