That Khairy Jamaluddin, sacked by Umno in 2023, would eventually return to the party’s fold has always been a safe bet. That he will do so before the 16th general election (GE16) is also a relatively good bet.

The million ringgit question however is, who will make the first move to set things in motion — Khairy or Umno?

Does Khairy need Umno or is it the other way round? That’s another bet altogether that requires us to be familiar with the history between the two.

When Umno was all but wiped out in the 2018 general election, the party’s then president Najib Razak stepped down, triggering a three-cornered fight for the top post.

The contenders were Khairy, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and stalwart Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.

Zahid eventually came out tops, though it did not stop other prominent leaders from wanting to oust him.

And this batch of leaders came out of the woodwork in the last general election and nearly caused Zahid to lose his Bagan Datuk seat.

Khairy, despite being a minister in Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s Cabinet, did not hold back in his criticism of the party’s leadership and was subsequently dealt with by Zahid after the nationwide polls.

Khairy, who was openly critical of Zahid after he was fielded in a PKR stronghold for the election, was later accused of breaching party discipline.

Fast forward several years, Umno is doing relatively okay, with Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh playing the “bad cop” to Zahid’s “good cop” image. The tactic seems to have wooed the Malays in the civil service back to Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan.

Zahid, who pulled off a masterstroke in the Melaka and Johor state elections, appears to have put Umno on track to win between 40 to 45 seats at the 16th general election (GE16) — nearly double its 2022 haul of 26.

If by some miracle, Barisan Nasional can secure 60 to 70 seats at GE16 — keeping in mind that many expect PH to secure between 50 to 55 seats — Zahid could very well be the next prime minister.

But for Umno to win more seats, they would need a trump card. Can Khairy be the party’s ace up its sleeve? However, even before that question can be answered, Khairy’s concern would be how he can plot his return to Umno.

Does he have a huge war chest? Many don’t seem to think so. Which begs the question, what can Khairy bring to Umno’s table?

Well, he is young, popular, energetic and an idealist. He has also, irrespective of whether you like him or not, managed to turn himself into a rockstar with millions of YouTube followers.

These attributes are what Umno badly needs to woo the young urban Malays and non-Malays.

And it is this plus point that makes Khairy a valuable asset to the party. Why? Because apart from Akmal’s race-baiting antics, Umno appears to have nothing to bring to the table for GE16.

Let’s not forget that Najib’s bid to serve the remainder of his jail term under house arrest is still on the cards. And if the former prime minister is granted permission to do so, it could attract more Malays at the expense of the non-Malays.

That is why Umno is not keen to go into GE16 alone and prefers, for now, to be with PH.

But with Khairy, Umno and BN may decide they have enough clout, although I think PAS and Bersatu would end up benefiting as votes would be split between BN and PH, as it was in the last nationwide polls.

Still, with Khairy, Umno is in a better position to rule Malaysia once more, alongside PH and parties from Sabah and Sarawak.

Which brings us back to the question. Who will make the first move? Khairy or Zahid?

Zahid can’t risk tarnishing his reputation by being the first to offer the olive branch.

Nor will Khairy, who would be concerned with the optics involved, that is, coming off as a beggar like Tajuddin Abdul Rahman who cannot survive without Umno.

I personally think that Khairy can survive and thrive if he sets up a new political party.

But Khairy wants to be prime minister and right now, and only Umno can provide him with the platform to realise that dream.

So here’s what I think will happen.

A cliched narrative will come into play, where the two will bury the hatchet publicly, express remorse about statements made presumably out of love for the party, and, wanting only to look out for its interest, and declare that they have come together to save Malaysia.

I won’t even dismiss the idea that a “kenduri” will be held to celebrate Khairy and Zahid’s magnanimity and proclaim that both are Umno “dulu, kini dan selamanya”.

This way, no one can say who made the first move.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.