Come the 16th general election, only three people stand a chance of becoming prime minister: Anwar Ibrahim, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi or Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar, who are respectively the chairmen of Pakatan Harapan, Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional.
Hamzah Zainudin, who was sacked from Bersatu, is out of the running, and so is his “number one enemy”, Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin.
If I was a betting man, which I am not, I would wager all my money on Zahid. The Umno president has the brightest chances of succeeding Anwar.
Should Umno secure the most votes, Zahid would be an automatic choice if BN and PH were to remain allies. But Zahid would still be a shoo-in even if Umno and PAS forged an alliance, and the Islamic party went on to win the lion’s share of votes.
Pakatan Harapan’s chances
Why is this so? Based on current sentiment, gauged from opinion pieces and comments on social media, PKR and Amanah are likely to fold, while DAP would retain their seats, albeit with a lower majority.
Such an outcome would weaken PH, currently the dominant party with 79 seats in the Dewan Rakyat.
Umno is likely to see votes return to their fold courtesy of the PAS-Bersatu spat and Hamzah supporters who want to punish Muhyiddin for his “transgression”. For all we know, Hamzah may even work with Umno once he forms his new party.
A revived Umno would no doubt push for the prime ministership and would have the clout to do so, with PAS likely to be satisfied with remaining a regional party.
The two ruling coalitions in East Malaysia, meanwhile, will back whichever alliance can form the next government.
If Umno ties up with PAS
But what if Umno decides to renew their marriage vows with PAS and form a Umno-PAS government comprising the two largest Malay-Muslim parties? They will most likely kick Bersatu as well as Hamzah and co to the kerb, while DAP would revert to becoming the bogeyman who is out to erode Malay rights.
PAS may push for Samsuri to be the prime minster, although the party is fully aware that Gabungan Parti Sarawak and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah would balk. Samsuri, after all, is viewed as a puppet to PAS hardliners, especially his mentor, party president Abdul Hadi Awang.
So either way, Zahid would become prime minister.
Given this scenario, it is best that Malaysians make peace with such an eventuality, mourn in silence and move on, especially voters who opt to skip the polls, either out of frustration with the current government or wanting to teach PH a lesson over their shortcomings.
Will PMX become PMXI?
And what of Anwar? Can he be appointed to a second term? He could, if non-Malays were to assess his administration on the country’s economic performance, which is apparently essential for non-Malays, or so I’m told.
Malaysia’s economy is doing relatively well and Anwar’s government has not banned vernacular schools, which is another plus, given that education is of utmost importance to the non-Malay communities.
If, by a miracle, PH manages to retain its seats, Anwar stands every chance for a second term. There is a fair chance PH will pull through, in light of the growing economy, election goodies and containment of former PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli’s salvos towards the government.
Even so, my money is on Zahid. The odds are mathematically in his favour.
Non-Malay sentiments
While PAS did secure the most number of seats of any single party in the 2022 general election, it will never win over non-Malay voters, unless it delivers the heads of certain right-wing activists and independent preachers on a silver platter and Hadi is removed as president.
Both are unlikely scenarios.
Furthermore, Umno has stolen the thunder from PAS via Zahid’s ingenious “Rumah Bangsa”. So it is unlikely PAS will retain its 44 parliamentary seats.
PN will go into the next polls not only divided, but with a machinery filled with saboteurs. And if there is anything that a disunited Umno taught us, it is that schism is the beginning of the end.
So, that’s my take on the outcome of GE16. As a Malay and a Muslim, I am okay with any of the three outcomes. I would have preferred to retain the current formula, but I chose to wake up and smell the coffee.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.