Universiti Malaya’s Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub and Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan Ali said Shukri is likely to be a one-term menteri besar, although he is expected to serve out his current term.

Tawfik said Shukri’s defeat at the party’s recently concluded central leadership election and subsequent removal as Perlis PAS head showed a nationwide rejection of his leadership.

“He has already lost two contests this year: as Arau PAS chief and as a central committee member. The rejection is clear, and keeping him as menteri besar would be a risk for PAS going into the next general election,” he told FMT.

Mazlan said that, unlike his counterparts Nasruddin Daud (Kelantan), Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar (Terengganu) and Sanusi Nor (Kedah), Shukri has failed to stand out as state party chief.

“Perlis seems to be lagging behind. PAS might see his track record as underwhelming, so after one term, they may give someone else a chance,” he said.

As for Razman, both analysts said that his string of controversial remarks, frequently followed by retractions and apologies, have embarrassed PAS and undermined its credibility in Perak.

“He may still have opportunities, since PAS in other states often separates the roles of commissioner and menteri besar. But his attitude, outspokenness and controversial nature, in my view, make it too risky for PAS,” said Tawfik.

Mazlan said Razman’s removal could also indicate the party’s desire to end his long tenure and bring in a fresh face.

“Razman is already too senior, so it’s time to give younger leaders in Perak a chance to rise,” he said, dismissing Razman’s chances of being nominated as a candidate for the menteri besar’s post.