Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Pawi said Warisan was expected to ride on the “local party” sentiment that has gained popularity in the state.
Warisan would undoubtedly also be affected, but Awang Azman said the vote-split is likely to impact Sabah PH more.
“Warisan will push the narrative that PH is an ‘outside party’ (i.e. based in Peninsular Malaysia),” he told FMT.
Awang Azman said Warisan’s recent announcement that it would contest the elections on its own was mainly to observe the reaction of its rivals, allies and its own supporters.
However, he expects Warisan to only make its final decision on the matter after the Sabah legislative assembly is dissolved.
Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said supporters who backed the Warisan-PH alliance at the 2020 polls, dubbed “Warisan Plus”, would feel stuck between a rock and a hard place if the two were to end up on opposing sides.
He said the splitting of votes would dilute the chances of either side winning seats, which could then work in the favour of other contesting candidates.
Oh said the impact would largely depend on the specific constituencies where PH and Warisan will come face to face, expecting Warisan to chip into support for PH on Sabah’s west coast. On the other hand, Warisan stands to lose more in areas further north if votes are split, he said.
“Sabah’s east coast constituencies are predominantly Warisan strongholds and PH is too weak to make significant inroads there. In the interiors, both are weak,” he added.
Warisan’s decision to go solo has prompted PKR communications director Lee Chean Chung to urge the Shafie Apdal-led party to reconsider.
He also asked if Warisan would quit the unity government before the Sabah polls or “continue to benefit from government resources while acting like the opposition (in the state)”.
Lee’s statement drew a short yet stern rebuke from Sabah information chief Razeef Rakimin, who called on the central PKR leader to stay out of the affairs of other parties.
Oh said Lee’s comments were likely intended to preserve unity in the federal government for fear that other PH partners may emulate Warisan in future elections.
“Sabah PKR, on the other hand, is more concerned with Sabah’s political dynamics and may find it unpalatable to work with Warisan anyway,” he said, commenting on Razeef’s response to Lee.