National Council of Professors fellow Azmi Hassan and Hisommudin Bakar of think tank Ilham Centre agreed that the collaboration between Barisan Nasional (BN), which is expected to defend the seat, and Pakatan Harapan (PH), would see the candidate securing a majority of at least 2,213 – the margin by which the last election for the seat was won.

However, Azmi said the main challenge for Umno would be to win over DAP supporters.

“As the Perak menteri besar (Saarani Mohamad) pointed out, it won’t be an easy task as he is aware that there are still lingering issues between the grassroots of the two parties,” he told FMT.

He said another challenge for Umno would be to get as many of its diehard supporters as possible to cast their ballots, as the voter turnout for by-elections is usually low.

“There are concerns that these supporters will assume that Umno will win, whether or not they vote. Umno will need to persuade this group,” he added.

The Ayer Kuning state seat fell vacant following the death of its assemblyman Ishsam Shahruddin last weekend.

The former national football player won the seat in a five-cornered fight at the last general election.

Azmi played down the impact that racial and religious sentiments would have during a by-election.

However, he said the polls would be a litmus test for the two-year alliance between BN and PH at both the state and federal levels.

“It will be an interesting way to gauge the support of the Chinese and Indian communities, which are generally PH supporters,” he said.

Several days ago, former DAP assemblyman P Ramasamy predicted a lower turnout among non-Malay voters in Ayer Kuning, citing what he said was dissatisfaction within the community.

Ramasamy claimed that the non-Malay electorate, which make up 35% of the voters in Ayer Kuning, had grown increasingly disillusioned with Umno and the government.

Hisommudin said the momentum of BN’s victories in Mahkota and Nenggiri would continue in Ayer Kuning, but cautioned the government against ignoring the threat posed by Perikatan Nasional (PN).

At the 15th general election, PN’s candidate for Ayer Kuning won 6,812 votes – a significant jump from the 2,000 votes secured by PAS in the 14th general election.

“This proves that there is notable support for PN,” Hisommudin, the executive director of Ilham Centre, said.

He said while national issues such as the cost of living, the shortage of white rice, and unfulfilled promises were expected to dominate the campaign, parties should not disregard local issues.

“These local issues could be a determining factor,” he added.

Hisommudin also said the by-election would be BN’s best chance to boost its morale and strengthen itself ahead of the next general election, while for PN, it would be an opportunity to check the influence of its political rivals.

“The Ayer Kuning by-election isn’t just a battle between BN and PN, but a barometer for the stability of the unity government,” he said.