“As compared to the 15th general election (GE15), the split in Malay votes would not be as severe due to the straight fight (between Perikatan Nasional and the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional alliance).

“Thus, non-Malay voters could be kingmakers in Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Penang as well as mixed seats in the southern region of Kedah,” the survey found.

The pollster, in a summary of its findings, revealed that the elections would be a testing ground to determine the pattern of Malay votes in the peninsula following a change in voting trends seen in GE15.

The survey, conducted from July 11 to 27, took into account feedback from 2,416 respondents in the six states.

Ilham Centre said that the upcoming elections would definitely be a referendum on the PH-BN alliance within the unity government.

In terms of popularity, the survey found that the prime minister, his unity government and the Madani policies were highly rated in PH-led Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan.

However, the same could not be said for the states under PN.

“With the high number of Malay voters in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, it is a different story.

“Notwithstanding, the prime minister, his administration and Madani policies were consistently highly rated among non-Malays in all six states,” said the centre.

It said Malay voters in Malay-majority seats were more inclined towards PN’s narratives.

“This signifies that PN’s wave, which has garnered support in these areas, remains robust,” it added.

Umno or BN will have to work harder to regain the Malay support that was chipped away in GE15, it said.