Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid from Universiti Sains Malaysia said it was just as important to gauge the extent of Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) penetration into the three states before dismissing such talk.
“If PN gains support in the three states, this means that there’s a definite swing of votes away from Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional,” he told FMT.
He was commenting on a recent remark by Rajiv Rishyakaran, PH’s candidate for the Bukit Gasing state seat.
Rajiv said victory for PH-BN in the three states would show the unity government has the people’s support and end speculation about its collapse.
Pointing to Umno’s crucial role as the representative of the Malays, Fauzi said the party’s performance would indicate the extent of Malay support for the unity government.
In particular, he said it would reflect whether the party made the right decision when joining hands with former foes Anwar Ibrahim and PH to form the government.
“If Umno performs poorly, with its candidates losing in straight fights against PN, voices mocking the unity government as one bereft of legitimacy from the Malays will become stronger,” he said.
“This can affect the stability of the unity government after the state elections,” he said.
Meanwhile, Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat said a poor showing by Umno would see PN try to sow discord within the party by claiming that it has lost the support of the Malays.
“As Umno may not be able to have a leadership renewal, as most parties in the world do after losing an election, it would try to blame its defeat on the government for not being pro-Malay and pro-Islam enough,” he told FMT.
“If the government sinks into infighting over whether it should remain inclusive, its popularity would dive and PN would instigate some PN-leaning Umno MPs to resign and cause a by-election with the hope of further eroding the government’s legitimacy.”
However, these pro-PN candidates may not necessarily win the resulting by-elections if the economy is strengthened by then, he said.
Wong also said talk of instability would subside if the unity government gains a strong majority in the three states.
“The unity government can still claim legitimacy over its victory even if support from the Malays is lower compared with that from non-Malay voters,” he said.