James Chin of the University of Tasmania said Gerakan would struggle to survive as an independent party and must ultimately align itself with one of the three major coalitions – Pakatan Harapan (PH), Barisan Nasional (BN) or PN.

“Obviously, they cannot go (to PH) because then their ‘rice bowl’ among the non-Malay (voters) would be taken up by DAP and PKR. They can either rejoin BN or stay put with PN,” he told FMT.

Chin was asked to comment on Federal Territories Gerakan chief Lau Hoi Keong’s intention to review the party’s position in PN after the upcoming state elections, should he win against the incumbent president Dominic Lau at the next party polls.

Hoi Keong was quoted by Malaysiakini as saying that he only temporarily supported the idea of Gerakan being part of PN alongside Bersatu and PAS.

Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya also said the suggestion put forward by Hoi Keong was not a feasible option for the party, despite its potential appeal to its grassroots.

“The reality is, Gerakan is trapped. If it stays or goes, there is not much difference. If it remains (in PN), it won’t get any (Chinese) votes and even if it leaves (PN), it lacks a clear direction because most Chinese voters would rather support (the component parties in) the unity government,” he said.

Another political analyst Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said Gerakan would offer nothing electorally to other coalitions.

“Beyond PN, where it is treated as a decorative poster child, Gerakan is unlikely to find any partner. Not even with BN, which it had betrayed,” he said, referring to the time the party left BN after the coalition’s defeat in the 2018 general election.

Oh also expressed doubts about Gerakan’s prospects for political survival if the party were to leave PN and go solo: “(Even) a refreshing Muda could not find much (traction) as a third-party force, what more a much-discredited Gerakan,” he asked.