BN claimed 40 of the 56 state seats in last Saturday’s Johor elections to seal a two-thirds majority in the state assembly, with Pakatan Harapan taking 12 seats, Perikatan Nasional claiming three, and Muda one.
Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who is also an Umno vice-president, appears reluctant to call for GE15, which must be held before July 2023.
He has said that the decision to call for elections will only be made by BN when it is fully prepared, and not by a small group of people who are “screaming” for it to be held immediately.
However, Azizuddin Mohd Sani, of Universiti Utara Malaysia, said Ismail would not be able to keep holding out if such calls are repeated at the general assembly.
“This general assembly is quite special as it may be the last one before GE15,” he told FMT.
At the same time, he said, the Umno elections will be held before the end of this year.
There is speculation that Umno leaders do not want Ismail to extend the memorandum of understanding signed with PH, which expires in July.
Instead, there is pressure on Ismail to dissolve Parliament and continue Umno’s winning run, especially after defeating PN, which includes Bersatu and PAS, two parties which are also competing with Umno for the Malay vote.
Umno secretary-general Ahmad Maslan said the party leadership will not restrict delegates from voicing out any issues, as long as they are not sensitive, during the general assembly.
Apart from GE15, another question is whether the delegates will discuss the relationship between Umno and PAS, especially in the context of Muafakat Nasional (MN), the alliance both parties founded in 2019.
A resolution urging the party to strengthen cooperation with PAS and sever ties with Bersatu was passed at the 2020 general assembly, but PAS’ insistence on cooperating with Bersatu has put MN’s future in doubt.
Therefore, the delegates at the assembly are likely to give a clear signal to the party on the future of MN if PAS continues to cling on to Bersatu.
Any stand to reject MN or PAS is expected to be a blow to Umno leaders such as Annuar Musa, who has often urged Umno not to reject PAS or Bersatu.
His reasoning that Umno-BN cannot win a general election without PAS and Bersatu – a contention often repeated by PAS and certain Umno leaders – may now be seen as misguided considering the results of the Johor and Melaka elections.
Azizuddin, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations, said the general assembly will see a “definitive conclusion” as to MN’s future.
“There will surely be pressure to end this pact,” he said.
In addition to PH and PN, BN was challenged by a multitude of other parties in the Johor polls, but still won a majority of the seats despite the popular vote for the coalition being only 43%.
Apart from the 33 seats won by Umno, component parties such as MCA and MIC also bounced back by winning four and three seats, respectively, proving BN’s ability to attract both the Malay and non-Malay vote.
All these factors have strengthened the confidence of Umno leaders, including its president, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, and his deputy, Mohamad Hasan, that Umno is in a strong position to contest on its own in GE15, without Bersatu or PAS.
The question of who will be Johor’s menteri besar is also expected to feature prominently in the assembly. This comes after BN’s menteri besar candidate Hasni Mohamad suggested yesterday that the Umno leadership consider a “younger person” to lead Johor.
The assembly will be held until March 19.