The three seats – Tanjung Bidara, Asahan and Telok Mas – have been seeing intense campaigning by heavyweight candidates from Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN).
In Tanjung Bidara, the focus is on state Umno chief Ab Rauf Yusoh of BN, Mas Ermieyati Samsudin, the PN’s CM candidate, and Zainal Hassan of Pakatan Harapan (PH).
In Asahan, the contest involves former Melaka chief minister Idris Haron of PH, who switched seats from Sungai Udang, state Umno Youth chief Fairul Nizam Roslan, PN’s B. Dhanesh and independent candidates Mohd Noor Salleh, Azmar Ab Hamid @ Sha’aim and Mohd Akhir Ayob.
Telok Mas is seeing a clash involving Melaka Bersatu head Mohd Rafiq Naizamohideen, independent Muhammad Ariff Adly Mohammad, Ashraf Mukhlis Minghat of PH and Kota Melaka Umno division chief Abdul Razak Abdul Rahman.
Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM) lecturer Mohd Izani Mohd Zain said he sees Ab Rauf, Mas Ermieyati, Idris currently receiving equal support based on several factors.
“In Tanjung Bidara, Ab Rauf and Mas Ermieyati have experience in terms of administration and politics but they are tainted with issues such as party hopping and integrity.
“In Asahan, Idris may have the support of non-Malay voters from PH, but the death of Alor Gajah Umno division chief Abdul Ghafaar Atan may see sympathy votes going to BN,” he said today.
Idris, 55, who was Melaka chief minister for five years from 2013, is a local boy from Kampung Relau, Asahan, and a former deputy higher education minister at the federal level when he was Tangga Batu MP.
On Rafiq’s chances in Telok Mas, Izani said the incumbent, Noor Effandi Ahmad, had given way for Bersatu to set foot in the area after winning with a majority of 1,288 votes in the 14th general election.
He said Telok Mas was an Umno stronghold but Noor Effandi’s victory in GE14 (on a PH ticket then) may have been due to protest votes from the people following the negative sentiments against the party over the 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) scandal.
“Maybe Bersatu put Rafiq in Telok Mas so the votes for the party would remain, but protest votes could spoil things and the trend can change based on the current sentiments in the campaign,” he said.
Asked on the three hot seats of Lendu, Sungai Udang and Bukit Katil, which are being contested by former chief minister Sulaiman Md Ali, state Umno deputy chief Mohamad Ali Mohamad and another former chief minister, Adly Zahari, Izani said the three are expected to win easily in their respective constituencies.
He said this is because this election is the third time Sulaiman is standing in Lendu apart from the strong grassroots support and the campaign focus on continuing government projects which could only happen if he is reappointed as chief minister.
“Ali is seen as being comfortable in Sungai Udang as it is a fixed deposit for the ruling party with the large military camp in the area. The incentives tabled in Budget 2022 for armed forces personnel would please such voters. I believe they would give their support to the ruling party,” he said.
Izani said Adly stands a good chance of defending the Bukit Katil seat he won in GE14 as he still has the aura as the former chief minister from PH apart from aggressively reaching out to voters in his campaign.
Universiti Sains Malaysia lecturer Sivamurugan Pandian expects that a high turnout would be an advantage to BN and PH in the state election.
He said at the moment, there are many factors influencing the turnout.
Among them, he said were that the people feel that there is no need to hold the state election, and they feel it is the time for the government to prioritise the people.
He added that protest votes would be seen as being against the ongoing politicking and voters being angry and disappointed with the current situation in the country.
“I would not be surprised if the voter turnout is low, giving the advantage to BN, and if it is higher than in 2018 which was at 82%, it would favour PH.
“(Nonetheless), it would not achieve the 2018 rate. It may be far lower unless the election machinery of the various parties go all out to persuade voters to support their parties to ensure the process of democracy is preserved,” he said.