In interviews with FMT, Mohamed Mustafa Ishak of Universiti Utara Malaysia, Syed Arabi Idid of the International Islamic University Malaysia and PPBM Supreme Council member Tariq Ismail noted that PH won the seat in last year’s general election with a small majority and said the constituency still had many Barisan Nasional (BN) supporters.
The seat fell vacant last Saturday with the death of Mohamed Farid Rafik, a PPBM member and a deputy minister.
In the general election, Farid won only 47.29% of the 44,948 valid votes. BN got 46.12% and PAS 6.59%. The constituency has 53,528 registered voters, 56% of them Malays, 42% Chinese and 1% Indians.
Mustafa said it wasn’t an impressive performance considering the deafening call for change prior to the election.
He said he wouldn’t be surprised if 15% of the Malays who voted for PH last year switched their allegiance to BN in the coming by-election. The opposition coalition could also depend on its traditional Chinese support, he added.
Mustafa said he believed voter sentiments had changed in the last 16 months mainly because PH had failed to fulfil many of its election promises.
“It looks like BN has a better chance,” he added. “It’s best for it to place a Malay candidate to take advantage of current Malay sentiments and the momentum from the formalisation of a unity pact between Umno and PAS.”
But he said PH could win if it fielded a candidate that could appeal to both Malays and Chinese.
“A well known and credible figure may still be able to deliver the seat back to PH,” he added.
The by-election comes at a time when there appears to be some racial tension, with non-Malays complaining about the introduction of khat in the school curriculum and Malays calling for a boycott of non-Malay commercial products.
Syed Idid said he too believed the choice of candidate would be crucial to PH.
“Remember that Umno has the backing of PAS,” he said, adding that this would boost Malay support for the party, which he claimed was still strong in Johor.
He also said PH needed a well-oiled election machinery, alleging that it lost the by-elections in Semenyih, Cameron Highlands and Rantau because the parties in the coalition were not in sync with one another.
Tariq said the right candidate would be one with the charm to attract support from both Malay and Chinese voters.
“He or she cannot be one who would show an ultra-Malay tendency that would alienate the Chinese and cannot be too progressive to alienate the traditional Malays,” he told FMT.
“Use this by-election to allay any fears that PAS and Umno will throw at voters. Race and religious issues can be settled through our national policies.”
He suggested picking a PPBM candidate with a good understanding of local issues, cautioning PH against overconfidence.
“Work as if you are the underdog,” he said. “Put in 1,000% effort, meet the people and do not think that they are dumb. Be humble. Try to win over those who will support Umno-PAS and BN.”