And this time, it will be even more keenly observed, as it will involve a candidate from PPBM, a party seen as representing Malays who make up some 70% of Semenyih voters.
Like Cameron Highlands, PAS has also opted to stay out of this by-election, being called following the death of PH-PPBM assemblyman Bakhtiar Mohd Nor.
In the May polls, Bakhtiar won with 23,428 votes in a four-cornered contest, beating candidates from Barisan Nasional (BN), PAS and PSM.
BN polled 14,464 votes while PAS polled 6,966 votes.
If the voting pattern in Cameron Highlands was to be replicated, it would mean that some 7,000 votes would go to Umno and the opposition would only need a slight push to wrest the seat from PH.
PPBM strategist Rais Hussin admits that the March 2 by-election is going to be challenging.
The party is facing the pressure of preventing a second consecutive by-election loss for the ruling coalition.
“It is going to be challenging (to win) but not impossible,” Rais told FMT.
“The Malay narrative is quite challenging and there could be a snowball effect from Cameron Highlands.”
He said PH’s victory hinges on its ability to choose “the right candidate” and address “the right issues”.
Among the challenges is to explain issues surrounding PH’s promises in its manifesto, many of which the coalition was unable to fulfil.
Universiti Utara Malaysia’s Kamarul Zaman Yusoff said after suffering defeat in Cameron Highlands, PH should by now realise that some issues, such as the 1MDB scandal, have little impact on voters.
At the same time, he said the Najib Razak factor, which some said contributed to BN’s win in Cameron Highlands, is absent in Selangor.
“I don’t think Najib’s presence in Semenyih will be as big a factor as in Cameron Highlands as Pahang is his bastion. In Selangor, the sentiment is different.”
Still, Kamarul said national issues frequently raised by Najib were very pertinent, and his method of delivery was also effective.
“So this can help the BN candidate, especially when government leaders do not take them seriously and try to hit out at him with 1MDB. The people now are more interested to see what PH can do about their daily lives,” he said.
Kamarul said PPBM would find it tough not only due to a perceived drop in support from Malays, but also the indifference from non-Malay voters, who played a crucial role in catapulting PH to power last year.
“It must also be noted that non-Malay voters do not seem to be too eager to come out in full force for by-elections,” he said.
A failure to get sufficient non-Malay votes could spell disastrous for PPBM this time, said Kamarul.
This is because unlike the general election in May, PAS will no longer be there to split the votes, he added.
Kamarul said even PSM, despite coming out last in the polls last year, could also act as a “spoiler” for PH by drawing votes away from non-Malays, particularly the Indian electorate who make up some 14% of voters in Semenyih.
Kamarul however said the outcome of the Semenyih by-election cannot be used to gauge Malay support for PPBM nationwide.
He said, it is more likely a test of support for Selangor Menteri Besar Amirudin Shari and the state government, especially when local issues are highlighted during by-elections.
With 45% of Semenyih voters under the age of 40, Kamarul believes that a young candidate is vital.
“Both PH and Umno need to send a strong candidate, a new face who is highly educated, bold and who can speak up for the interests of the Malays.”