Yesterday, prominent businessman Koon Yew Yin had said that a 5% swing of votes could see PH winning power in the state, if it could maintain its previous level of support with which it captured 55.14% of the popular vote in Perak in 2013.
However, Merdeka Center executive director Ibrahim Suffian did not believe such a swing would be the case. “In Perak, they lack strong Malay leaders to maximise the potential Malay votes they can get as in Kedah, Johor and even Selangor,” he told FMT.
He said the Perak Malay opposition vote was spilt almost 50-50 between PAS and Pakatan, and this would really benefit Barisan Nasional.
Universiti Utara Malaysia analyst Kamarul Zaman Yusoff pointed out that in 2013 the opposition pact received votes from PAS supporters as well, as PAS was a member of the previous Pakatan Rakyat coalition.
“Now PAS is standing on their own and they have their core supporters. If their candidates can get even 1,000 votes, they can spoil PH’s chances.”
Kamarul also said the Perak PH chairman, Ahmad Faizal Azumu, was not seen as a big name.
There were reports that Faizal did not want DAP to field a Malay candidate in Perak, but they went ahead and fielded law expert Aziz Bari.
“This gives the impression that DAP calls the shots in Perak. Then there are also issues within PH components or PKR divisions in Perak like Tapah, Pasir Salak, Padang Rengas and Kuala Kangsar.”
Kamarul said although attendance at PH ceramahs were impressive, such ceramahs had been held in urban or semi-urban areas where PH is strong.
“But rural voters are the ones who will be the deciding factor. PH should be holding smaller events in rural areas too.”
Universiti Malaya analyst Awang Azman Pawi said although poverty and a lack of employment opportunities could push votes to PH, it would have been better if the opposition pact nominated its prospective MB candidates.
“This would have helped convinced fence sitters,” he told FMT.
Redelineation of constituencies would also benefit BN. Nine of the 16 parliamentary seats in Perak that have been redelineated had been held by PH representatives.
“PH may get the popular vote in the state, but the redelineation means BN is likely to retain Perak.”
Barisan Nasional held 31 seats in the 59-member state assembly, Pakatan Harapan 24 and PAS 4.
Click here to get live updates throughout the GE14 season
Daim’s prediction: Kelantan, Perak and Kedah could fall to PH