In a report in The Diplomat, Karl CL Lee and SK Chia said political scenarios at the grassroots level were bound to local factors.
They said these may not be reflected in quantitative studies as done by pollsters on the chances of Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the election which is due by August.
Lee, a PhD candidate at Monash University’s school of arts and social sciences in Malaysia, and Chia, a researcher at Anbound Malaysia, the subsidiary of Beijing-based think tank Anbound China, cited the example of the “Mahathir factor.”
They said the PH chairman’s personal appeal in his native Kedah was a huge impediment to the BN’s continuous rule in the state.
“For one, the revelation that Mahathir would contest in one of the two constituencies in Kedah (Langkawi or Kubang Pasu) is poised to resonate with nostalgic feelings among the locals, especially the Malay voters who identify him as the ‘father of the state’,” the report said.
Mahathir, who is now PPBM chairman, was prime minister and Umno president for 22 years till 2003.
He was born in Alor Setar where he later operated a popular private medical clinic in the 1960s and 1970s prior to serving in government and becoming the Kubang Pasu MP from 1974 to 2004.
The report said his son Mukhriz Mahathir, who was Kedah menteri besar from 2013 to 2016, is tipped to be appointed in the position again if PH wins the state.
It said this prospect is likely to capture the imagination of Kedah voters. “The return of his son to power is seen as a continuation of Mahathir’s legacy in the northern state,” it said.
The report also cited former deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s attempt to utilise his political base in northern Johor, where he is MP for Pagoh, as a “springboard” to capture the state with PH.
The PPBM president was Johor menteri besar under BN from 1986 to 1995.
The report also said PH’s performance in Johor would depend on effective utilisation of local issues, native personality appeals and robust campaigning in the state.
A third example offered was that of Semporna MP Shafie Apdal, the former Umno vice-president who is now Parti Warisan Sabah president.
The report said he was seeking to exploit his support base in the eastern part of Sabah to make momentous inroads in the state.
“By fostering a single identity among Sabahans and pledging to restore the state’s long overdue special rights (through activation of the Malaysian Agreement 1963, should it come to power after the GE14), Shafie’s newly-formed Parti Warisan Sabah is giving an appealing localist option to locals, as opposed to the ruling BN and its national opposition counterparts,” it said.