A 20-year-old Sarawakian was detained at the Jinnah Airport in Karachi after allegedly attempting to smuggle four handguns and ammunitions onto a Thai Airways flight bound for Bangkok, enroute to Malaysia.
Malaysian police have long suspected that firearms smuggling has been going on at the Thailand-Malaysia border, more recently for the benefit of IS cells.
The Thai government however, has always rubbished such claims.
“It’s highly likely that the arrest will make Malaysian counter-terrorism forces even more certain that firearms are being smuggled from Thailand into Malaysia.
“I’m sure that the Malaysian authorities are currently monitoring the suspected smuggling routes between the two nations,” a Malaysian counter-terrorism analyst, who declined to be named, told FMT.
“Whether or not the arrest turns out to be smuggling-related and/or IS-connected, Malaysian police have reason to suspect such activities will happen again in the future because there have been similar cases in the past.”
In early May, Malaysian counter-terrorism police arrested six people allegedly linked to IS in five states including Kelantan, which borders Thailand.
A seventh suspect, Muhammad Muzaffa Arieff Junaidi from Kelantan, reportedly fled to Thailand on March 22.
Malaysian police said Junaidi was part of a ring that had been smuggling small arms from southern Thailand for roughly a year in preparation for attacks in Malaysia.
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha on May 3 urged reporters not to “play up” the issue, saying it could cause fear and panic in the kingdom.
Former inspector-general of police Khalid Abu Bakar had at the time said police believed the two suspects arrested in Kelantan were involved in smuggling weapons from southern Thailand for the terror group.
Singapore’s Straits Times had also quoted sources as saying that the smuggling activities could have been going on for more than a year and that there could have been more weapons the authorities did not find.
In November, an arms smuggler told the Singapore daily he believed some of those who purchased weapons he brought into the country from Thailand may have been militants linked to IS.
Thai denial to be expected
Southeast Asian security analyst Alexander Macleod said the denial by Thai officials is to be expected, although the militant group is unlikely to make inroads into Thailand.
“Admittedly, Thai police and the authorities are likely to rubbish any such claims in order to protect Thailand’s tourist-friendly image,” he told FMT.
“Regardless, available evidence suggests that IS has not had much success or that its efforts will influence a notable shift in the political and security environment of this region,” said Macleod, who is a senior analyst with London-based risk intelligence firm Global Risk Insights.
Macleod added that Thailand is also the least likely location to be a “safe haven” for IS fighters, compared with its neighbours Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.
He said if there is any IS presence in Thailand, it is likely not to be rooted in local society, and so there could only be occasional weapon smuggling.
“There is little if any appetite for an IS-style ‘jihad’ in southern Thailand, and IS will find difficulty in growing its support or establishing a base of operations here,” the analyst said.
“If there is any pro-IS sentiment to be found, it will be manifested in singular, unsophisticated and disparate terror cells not rooted in local society.
“This may lead to occasional instances of single figures attempting to bring weapons into Malaysia, but there is no major cause for alarm.”
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