A report in Singapore’s TODAY says although the BN had won all previous elections on a multiracial platform, this could come to an end at GE14.

Despite Umno’s rhetoric that it is colour-blind and cares for the well-being of all Malaysians, analysts interviewed by TODAY noted that the party had signalled it would bank on using the race card more than ever.

The report said that Umno and having lost the support of the majority of urban as well as ethnic Chinese voters would increasingly rely on votes from the Malays and Bumiputeras.

With Umno’s non-Malay coalition partners seen as being unable to draw significant portions of the non-Malay electorate, the BN could even end up as a Bumiputera coalition.

The report noted that Najib, who is also prime minister, had set the tone when he warned delegates to the recent Umno assembly that the special position and rights of the Malays in the country would be eroded if the DAP – whose membership is majority Chinese – came to power.

Calling on the Malays to understand the grave consequences, he said they would have to decide whether to maintain a government led by Umno or DAP in the next election.

Also, Najib appeared alongside Hadi Awang, the president of the opposition PAS, at a rally to protest Myanmar’s treatment of its minority Rohingyas, who are Muslim.

TODAY noted that in voicing support for PAS’ bill to strengthen the Shariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act 1965, Umno had strained its ties with other BN component parties including the MCA and MIC.

However, Dr Oh Ei Sun, a former political aide to Najib, was quoted as saying that long-term harm from a racial GE14 was unlikely.

“It would in the short run be divisive for the country, but Malaysia has seen this sort of racial card being played many times before and usually ‘recovered’ from them after a while,” said Oh, a Senior Fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore.

Dr Norshahril Saat, a fellow at the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, noted that in the long run, racial politics would not be good for Malaysian society.

“Race-based politics have coloured the political scene since independence. When Prime Minister Najib got into power in 2009, he introduced the concept 1Malaysia. It would upset the minorities if the government reverts to racial politics after so much promise to move away from it,” TODAY quoted him as saying.

The race card might marginalise the non-Malay voters, added Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute deputy director Ooi Kee Beng.

“Race and religion being election issues will be disheartening for the minorities, of course, and perhaps lead to more emigration in the medium term,” he told TODAY.

Ooi said playing the race card would put Umno’s BN allies in a difficult position. “This will mean that Umno will be demanding more seats, leading to intra-BN tensions. These allies will continue to lose ground, making BN a Bumiputera coalition.”

Professor James Chin, director of the Asia Institute, University of Tasmania, told TODAY that Najib understands that MCA, MIC or Gerakan were unable to get the support from their ethnic groups.

“So, there is no need to make concessions to them. They (component parties) cannot do anything as they have been powerless since the 1970s.”

Analysts said Umno and PAS knew that they needed each other, due to some of their members leaving to form other parties and Umno’s belief that it had to demonstrate its Muslim credentials to gain more Malay rural votes.

“You are not likely to ever find another scenario where Umno lends its support for a PAS initiative. PAS, on the other hand, will use Umno to bolster itself (bearing in mind that the party now consists of mostly the conservative members after the split) but at the same time, they need Umno,” Rashaad Ali, a research analyst at RSIS told TODAY.

Chin added: “For Najib, he needs Hadi (Awang) and PAS to stay in power. It will give him more support and benefit both Umno and PAS in the rural areas.”

Fui K Soong, director of the Centre for Strategic Engagement, said the “pact” between Umno and PAS meant they would have a “friendly fight” in the polls and both parties would refrain from encroaching on each other’s stronghold seats.

The analysts agreed that the BN would win the next general election, but with a reduced majority.