“Even as East Timor was admitted to join Asean, I think it will be not easy, and will take time,” one diplomat from outside the bloc told Nikkei Asia earlier this month.
Asean leaders at the November summit agreed to pave the way for Timor-Leste, as East Timor is officially known, to join the bloc and said a road map for full membership will be drawn up at this year’s summit. Asean foreign ministers met Saturday, with the envoy from East Timor invited for the first time. At the meeting, ministers from the current members adopted guidelines regarding East Timor’s observer status in the group.
Despite the progress, some experts say East Timor has a long way to go before it becomes a full member.
“Timor-Leste is still [in] observer status for now, but if Indonesia does manage to help get Timor-Leste into Asean, it faces several challenges,” said Maria Ortuoste, a professor of political science at California State University East Bay. Indonesia is the rotating chair of Asean this year.
Each Asean member must contribute to the group’s operating budget through equal annual contributions. In addition, there are other costs, such as paying for officials’ travel expenses to attend meetings outside their home countries. Hosting conferences in East Timor itself will also be costly.
Ortuoste said that covering those costs “is quite a significant challenge for Timor-Leste, especially as its oil revenue dwindles and is declining as a share of GDP,” adding, “They would need additional support personnel. There is also the matter of infrastructure: There have been some improvements, but more needs to be done.”
One Asean diplomat who requested anonymity agreed with Ortuoste, saying that East Timor still needs to develop the skills of its people, making sure they are able, for example, to put together material in English for meetings. In East Timor most people speak Tetum or Portuguese.
These challenges aside, East Timor’s president Jose Ramos-Horta is optimistic about his country’s application to join the bloc. “There is no obstacle to our accession” to Asean, Ramos-Horta told Nikkei on Jan 19 on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. He also noted that the “solemn, formal accession can happen this year, or in a year’s time.”
Indonesia, which chairs Asean, also supports East Timor’s application, with foreign minister Retno Marsudi saying, “Indonesia welcomes the acceptance, in principle, of Timor-Leste’s membership in Asean,” in an annual press statement on Jan 11.
Since gaining independence from Indonesia in 2002, East Timor has been seeking to join. Although the bloc has reached a consensus on bringing the country into the fold, it was not easy. Some members objected that it was not ready.
“For Singapore, as was openly discussed, some resistance may have been expressed around economic factors,” such as gap in its trade balance with other Asean countries, and its domestic development, said Muhammad Waffaa Kharisma, a researcher at the Indonesian branch of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He referred to how East Timor’s trade deficit might represent a burden to the other Asean countries, rather than adding value.
“I think everyone is fully supportive of their full participation,” Singapore’s foreign minister Vivian Balakrishnan told reporters after the Asean foreign minister meeting on Feb 4. But he cautioned: “Membership of Asean carries with it heavy responsibilities and obligations.”
Ramos-Horta has acknowledged the challenges. During the January interview, on the question of East Timor’s readiness to join, he said, “There are weaknesses on our side, as we are a new country. We have difficulties with human resources and our economy.”
Despite these challenges, however, accepting East Timor may offer advantages to Asean, especially in terms of regional security. “Embracing East Timor, for me, has always been of geostrategic importance, amid the global rivalry between China and the US, as well as Australia,” said Kharisma. East Timor is forging ties with countries, including with Beijing. Chinese companies are heavily involved in building infrastructure there.
Kharisma sounded positive about its newest prospective member: “Sticking with the supporters, engaging the swing states, whilst gradually improving its bid, plus also accompanied by some domestic political and economic reform, should be the way forward,” he said.