The true significance of the Sungai Besar by-election lies in its being a preview of the battle for the Malay soul that will be fought in GE14. The contenders – Budiman Mohd Zohdi of Umno, Abdul Rani Osman of PAS and Azhar Abdul Shukur of Amanah – represent the three purely Malay parties in the peninsula, each with its own vision for the Malays.

Which will appeal most to the majority of Malays – the ultra-conservatism of PAS, the autocratic bent of Umno or the cosmopolitan streak shown by Amanah?

The battle is interesting for another reason. PAS is going into it soon after being pilloried for a histrionic demonstration of what is seen as a shift in its stuggle towards one that is race-based. It’s decision to have its leaders dress in the attire of Malay warriors at its recent muktamar was seen by many as an attempt to realign the party’s values closer to those of Umno. If that is so, PAS is headed down a road that would have been rejected by its late spiritual leader, the charismatic Nik Abddul Aziz Mat.

The conversation that will be raised around the campaign, more than the election result itself, will give us an idea of how the Malays feel about their options.

Given the confrontational language that PAS has been using lately, one can expect many fiery ceramahs, and with only so much space to go around in a constituency of 42,000 registered voters, things may get hairy between supporters of the rival parties if the leaders themselves are incapable of exercising control.

This is the fist clash between PAS and Amanah. Much like a jilted lover, PAS has been chomping at the bit to give Amanah a good hiding for daring to leave a party that has fallen under the domination of Hadi Awang and his ulama wing. Will the professionals who make up Amanah be able to prove that they are indeed the “best and brightest” of our current crop of Malay politicians by staying above the din of PAS’ indignant howling? If they can do so, then Amanah will be the winner of the battle, whether or not it captures the seat.

Many moderates are hoping that Amanah can show us that its measured, centrist ideology has the power to move voters.

The narratives coming out of this by-election will spill over into the general election, and catching onto those trends will be key in each party’s formulation of the approach it will take for that big battle.
This by-election will likely be a close race and one that will be closely watched.