Marzuki Mohamad said while such narratives could help boost overall Malay support, it would not be sufficient to win the nationwide polls and form the government.

He said PN had won all seats with large Malay majorities during the 2022 general election but still could not form the government.

Marzuki said the key battlegrounds for PN to win GE16 were seats where the Malay electorate constituted a smaller majority of 51% to 65% of voters.

Most of these seats were in the west coast of the peninsula, he said.

“In GE15, Pakatan Harapan dominated these seats by winning 22, followed by Barisan Nasional with nine and PN with four.

“Malay support for PN in west coast states is estimated to be about 60%, based on conservative estimates.

“The rest are BN and PH supporters and fence-sitters,” he said in a Facebook post.

If PN succeeds in gaining 60% of Malay support in these seats, Marzuki said the coalition would only get 30-40% of the total votes cast.

If PN were to face direct clashes with a PH-BN alliance, the opposition coalition would lose in all these seats, he said.

“If Malay support for PN in these areas can be increased to 80%, then PN can win 10 seats that fall under this category. But even this is a tall order.

“In the west coast states, 15-20% of Malay voters are staunch PH supporters.

“Anti-DAP and ummah unity narratives will not cause them to shift their support away from PH when they have voted for PH for decades.

“Meanwhile, around 20-25% of Malay voters in these states remain loyal to Umno. The rest shifted their support to PN in GE15,” he said.

This meant that PN cannot depend on Malay support alone to win these mixed seats, with the non-Malay vote proving crucial to determine the victor.