Syahruddin Awang Ahmad, Bilcher Bala and Awang Azman Awang Pawi agree that Gabungan Rakyat Sabah enjoys the advantage of incumbency, although the overall electoral landscape remains balanced due to strong competition from Warisan and Barisan Nasional.

Meanwhile, Pakatan Harapan, contesting 21 seats, could play a key role in shaping post-election coalitions.

Syahruddin told FMT that GRS, led by caretaker chief minister Hajiji Noor, has more resources, a better-organised machinery, and the advantage of being in government.

But this does not guarantee victories, especially in marginal seats.

He said the proliferation of multi-party contests and the volatility of political alliances increase the probability that no coalition will achieve the required simple majority of 37 seats in the 73-seat assembly.

“This could force the formation of a post-election coalition government,” the Borneo Geopolitics & Electoral Studies (GeoPES) researcher told FMT.

Awang Azman, of Universiti Malaya, described this election as one of the most fragmented in over three decades, driven by the participation of 596 candidates and contests featuring multi-candidate match-ups in many constituencies, including a 14-way fight in Tulid.

“In this scenario, it is very difficult for any party to achieve outright dominance. A landslide victory for one side is increasingly unrealistic,” he said, commenting on the confidence expressed by leaders of major parties.

Previously, Hajiji expressed confidence that GRS could form a simple majority from the 55 seats it is contesting, while Warisan president Shafie Apdal said his party would field candidates for all 73 seats to secure a mandate sufficient to govern independently.

Sabah BN chairman Bung Moktar Radin also voiced confidence that the coalition could return to power, despite contesting only 45 seats.

Local factors

Bilcher, from Universiti Malaysia Sabah, pointed out that a party’s real advantage is largely premised on local factors, including the candidate’s popularity, community influence, and constituency-specific issues.

“Political fragmentation and the presence of high-profile independent candidates limit single-party dominance at the state level,” he said.

He also stressed that technical factors on polling day, such as logistics, voter mobility, the effectiveness of transport machinery, and party agent discipline at polling stations, could play a significant role in determining last-minute outcomes.

Regarding swing voters, the three analysts agreed voters are less influenced by political promises and more by issues that directly affect their daily lives.

Syahruddin said his team’s research shows that voters, especially young and urban ones, are increasingly guided by candidate personality rather than party sentiment.

“They want candidates who are trustworthy, accessible and genuinely understand grassroots issues,” he said.

Political stability and continued development

Awang Azman said stability is also a key consideration for voters.

“Voters want a stable government that will not easily crumble and avoid excessive political drama.

“The sentiment of ‘Sabah for Sabahans’ still exists, but voters are more pragmatic – they value autonomy, but they also care about who can build roads, schools and hospitals,” he said, highlighting the importance of state-federal relations in shaping support patterns.

Some voters, according to the analysts, will choose the coalition they feel is best able to bring development funds, ensure continuity of projects, and maintain policies beneficial to the Sabahans.

Election promises not be-all and end-all

Bilcher explained that manifestos remain important but are only effective if accompanied by clear implementation plans and realistic success metrics.

“A manifesto without timelines and execution mechanisms is insufficient to attract swing voters,” he said, stressing that ethical, fact-based campaigning is more effective than personal attacks and baseless accusations.

According to the Election Commission, 1.78 million voters are eligible to cast their ballots today.

The breakdown of voters according to age is as follows: