Amid a crowded field which includes a long list of independent candidates, Pakatan Harapan is in a unique arrangement, teaming up with both Gabungan Rakyat Sabah and Barisan Nasional, albeit separately, while Perikatan Nasional has decided to go it alone, keeping its options open in terms of post-election allies.
Warisan is also going solo, and is set to contest all 73 seats, while several other local parties are also fielding a sizeable cohort of candidates — among them Jeffrey Kitingan’s Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR), contesting 46 constituencies.
STAR quit GRS last month, while another Sabah-based party, Upko, similarly exited PH just two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, anticipation is building in several key constituencies, where prominent figures, former allies, and long-time rivals are set to clash.
FMT takes a look at 10 key seats, and has roped in political analysts Bilcher Bala of Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, and Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Pawi to predict the likely winners.
Pintasan
GRS’s decision to field Usno president Pandikar Amin Mulia has stirred discontent, with his candidacy greeted by jeers at the unveiling.
The ex-Dewan Rakyat speaker, for his part, appears confident, going so far as to wager a bet that he will overcome 10 rivals, including incumbent Fairuz Renddan, who beat Pandikar by a mere 84 votes in 2020.
Fairuz, who held the seat for GRS in the recently dissolved assembly, resigned as Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah Youth chief to contest as an independent.
Analysts’ prediction
Bilcher: Fairuz (independent)
Oh: GRS
Awang Azman: toss-up between GRS and Fairuz
Usukan
Ex-chief minister Salleh Said Keruak (BN) is looking for a fifth term as Usukan assemblyman but faces a six-way fight, with Warisan’s Isnaraissah Munirah Majilis appearing to be his most formidable rival.
Salleh successfully defended his state seat in 2020 with a solid 4,298-vote majority, after Isnaraissah turned the tables on him at the 2018 general election for her first parliamentary term as Kota Belud MP.
She retained the seat at GE 15 by defeating another Sabah Umno giant, Abdul Rahman Dahlan, by 4,582 votes.
Not to be discounted is GRS’s Japlin Akim, a former three-term Usukan assemblyman, previously under BN.
Analysts’ prediction
Bilcher: BN
Oh: Warisan
Awang Azman: BN
Kadamaian
Fresh from leading Upko out of PH, Ewon Benedick will want to prove he made the right call and still has the backing of Kadamaian folk.
This will be a major test of support for the ex-federal minister, having first won the Kadazandusun Murut-majority seat in 2018 under the BN banner, and retained it two years later while allied with Warisan and PH.
With all seven of his rivals coming from local parties riding on Sabah-centric sentiments, Ewon cannot bank on his “Sabah First” slogan alone to emerge victorious.
Analysts’ prediction (unanimous): Upko
Inanam
Among the most hotly-contested seats, Inanam, with 13 candidates running, will see three former assemblymen seeking a second term in the state assembly.
The trio — incumbent Peto Galim (PKR/PH), Kenny Chua (STAR) and independent candidate Dr Roland Chia, previously of GRS — appear to be the frontrunners for the semi-urban seat.
Both Chua, who served as assemblyman from 2018 to 2022, and Chia (2013-2018) were elected on PKR tickets.
However, the stiff competition between the trio could end up splitting the votes, which may end up benefiting other candidates, including Upko vice-president Wong Thien Fook and former beauty queen Edna Jessica Majimbun of Warisan.
Analysts’ prediction
Bilcher: 50-50 between PH and Warisan
Oh: 50-50 between STAR and Warisan
Awang Azman: PH
Tanjung Aru
This urban seat has been held by Warisan veep Junz Wong since 2018, though he won it in two state elections with PH on his side.
With Warisan going solo this time around, he faces a major contender in Sabah DAP deputy chief and two-term Kota Kinabalu MP Chan Foong Hin, a federal deputy minister.
Victory here will prove that Warisan has made inroads into urban areas, but defeat will mean its strength remains largely confined to Sabah’s east coast.
Analysts’ prediction
Bilcher: DAP/PH
Oh: Warisan
Awang Azman: DAP/PH
Moyog
Twelve men are vying to replace Warisan No 2 Darell Leiking, who opted not to defend the seat. In his place, Warisan is fielding vice-president Terrence Siambun, who held the semi-urban seat from 2013 to 2018.
However, he faces another ex-Moyog assemblyman in Upko deputy president Donald Peter Mojuntin. Mojuntin’s late father is a legend among the Kadazan people and was touted as the community’s next paramount leader prior to his tragic death in the Double Six crash.
Moyog has changed hands between Warisan, PKR, Upko and Parti Bersatu Sabah in the past. This year’s race will also see PH clashing with GRS despite their election pact.
Analysts’ prediction
Bilcher: Upko
Oh: 50-50 between Warisan and Upko
Awang Azman: Terrence Siambun (Warisan)
Bongawan
Ex-foreign minister Anifah Aman is having a second go at contesting in Bongawan, after losing by a majority of 1,802 votes to Warisan’s Daud Yusof in 2020.
Anifah will fancy his chances, with the former five-term MP’s Parti Cinta Sabah now a part of GRS, but Daud has the advantage of incumbency having just completed two terms in the seat.
The pair also have to contend with another ex-Bongawan assemblyman, the current deputy foreign minister and two-term Kimanis MP Mohamad Alamin (BN).
Analysts’ prediction
Bilcher: Warisan, due to votes splitting between Anifah and Mohamad
Oh: Too close to call
Awang Azman: BN
Kemabong
Gagasan Rakyat veep Rubin Balang wants a sixth term as Kemabong assemblyman, with the ex-Umno man having proven he is popular enough on his own after winning as an independent candidate in 2020.
Rubin faces a nine-cornered fight but his most formidable contender is DAP’s Noorita Sual, who once beat him to the Tenom parliamentary seat at GE14 in 2018.
Noorita, on the other hand, will be seeking to redeem herself after losing Tenom to Rubin’s son, Riduan, who contested as an independent candidate in GE15.
Analysts’ prediction
Bilcher: GRS
Oh: GRS
Awang Azman: Too close to call
Sook
The five-way battle for Sook is a crucial one for BN’s sole remaining Sabah-based component, Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS), as it seeks to regain its former stronghold.
PBRS president Arthur Joseph Kurup’s late father held the seat previously, making it all the more meaningful if he succeeds in wresting it from ex-party colleague Ellron Alfred Angin.
Ellron held the seat for PBRS from 2008 to 2018, before leaving to join STAR and later becoming its deputy president. The outgoing state minister quit STAR after it withdrew from GRS last month, and is now seeking a fifth term on ruling coalition GRS’s ticket, hoping to deny PBRS its traditional seat.
Analysts’ prediction
Bilcher: GRS
Oh: BN
Awang Azman: BN
Sugut
Three-term assemblyman and state minister James Ratib is defending his seat against six contenders, including Sabah PN chief Ronald Kiandee, the six-term Beluran MP, where Sugut is located.
Although many do not rate PN’s overall chances in Sabah, a close contest is expected between Kiandee and Ratib — formerly of Umno and Upko — who joined Gagasan Rakyat in 2023.
Analysts’ prediction
Bilcher: PN
Oh: PN
Awang Azman: Too close to call