They argue that the two parties’ long-standing rivalry renders any partnership fragile, noting that the alliance may be prompted more by the personal ambitions of their two leaders than a shared policy agenda.
Founded in 2016 following Shafie Apdal’s acrimonious departure from Umno, Warisan went on to win 21 seats at the 2018 state election.
Shafie was named chief minister after Warisan ousted the state BN administration by securing a simple majority in the state assembly with the support of then-ally Pakatan Harapan (PH) and several defecting BN assemblymen.
According to Bilcher Bala of Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS), the long history of recriminations between Warisan and Sabah BN, now led by Bung Moktar Radin, is likely to stir confusion and a sense of betrayal among their supporters.
He said that in the absence of a clear agreement, the partnership is unlikely to translate into a sustainable, policy-driven coalition.
“If negotiations focus on individual positions or posts, the alliance risks being fragile and will only last as long as both individuals derive direct benefits for themselves,” he told FMT.
Speculation about a covert Warisan-BN pact — dubbed ‘Kinabalu Move 2.0’ — has gained traction recently following reports of a closed-door meeting between party leaders.
Sources within Umno’s Supreme Council were reported as claiming that Shafie and BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi may have discussed an alliance to form the state government, with the possibility of Umno taking the chief minister’s post.
Shafie had previously insisted that Warisan would contest all 73 state assembly seats in the upcoming Sabah election. However, he made no mention of potential post-election cooperation.
Meanwhile, Zahid was reported to have said that Umno would be willing to work with any coalition or party, except Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS).
Tony Paridi Bagang of Universiti Teknologi Mara Sabah warned that the public may lose confidence in a Warisan-Umno alliance if it is perceived merely as a vehicle for personal power.
“Any ensuing political uncertainty could delay development projects and investments,” he said.
Another analyst, Syahrudin Awang Ahmad of Borneo Geo-Politics & Electoral Studies (GeoPES), said such an alliance would raise difficult questions among both sets of supporters.
“The history of conflict between the two, with Umno/BN having toppled the Warisan government in 2020 to trigger a snap election, will fuel grassroots resistance.
“The narrative of ‘a vote for Warisan is a vote for Umno’ may give rise to an erosion of public confidence, especially among younger voters already wary of opportunistic politicians,” he said.
Syahrudin also warned of potential defections if the alliance is engineered to ensure the political survival of Shafie and Bung.
“It risks becoming a fragile and temporary alliance, creating political uncertainty and ultimately undermining public trust in Sabah’s democratic institutions.
“If this partnership is merely a stepping stone or platform to grab power, Sabahans will feel deceived and may reject it,” he said.