Speaking to FMT on the sidelines of the 58th Asean Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (AMM), Thai foreign ministry spokesman Nikorndej Balankura said a credible political transition hinges on real progress towards the bloc’s agreed roadmap.
“If Myanmar achieves the five-point consensus, Myanmar could well have an election. We don’t really have any particular objections or support on that,” he said.
“We see that the elections might be an important step in the process of political transition in Myanmar, and we share Asean’s wish to see further progress on the 5PC.”
Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing previously said the country planned to hold elections in December and January, despite widespread international condemnation and internal strife.
The 5PC, adopted by Asean leaders in 2021, calls for an immediate end to violence, inclusive national dialogue, the appointment of a special envoy, unhindered humanitarian access and allowing a special envoy to visit Myanmar to meet with all parties. But progress has been minimal, and violence continues to rage across much of the country.
Thailand, which shares a 2,400km border with Myanmar, has taken a facilitator’s role rather than issuing direct criticism of the junta. It has sent humanitarian assistance, especially after a devastating earthquake struck Myanmar in March.
Despite Thailand’s cautious tone, analysts warn that talk of elections is premature, given the realities on the ground.
Andrea Passeri, an academic specialising in Southeast Asian affairs and director of the International Relations programme at Taylors University, said the conditions required for legitimate polls do not exist.
“Creating the ‘conducive environment’ that Bangkok and Putrajaya have in mind is, in all honesty, far beyond reach at the moment,” he told FMT.
Myanmar’s military regime, known as the State Administration Council (SAC), controls only parts of the country. More than 3.5 million people are internally displaced by ongoing conflict, and nearly 20 million require humanitarian assistance, even before factoring in the earthquake’s impact.
According to the United Nations, 70% of those affected by the quake have yet to receive aid.
“Organising a nationwide campaign under such conditions, where candidates cannot move freely and voters do not feel safe, is simply unrealistic,” Passeri said.
He also said that credible elections require a cessation of hostilities, unrestricted access to aid, and an inclusive political dialogue with all stakeholders, including the National Unity Government and ethnic organisations.
“None of these exist today. Without them, any polls risks becoming a stage-managed exercise to confer a false sense of legitimacy on the junta rather than a way out of the crisis.”
The 58th AMM and related meetings are taking place in Kuala Lumpur this week.
Under Malaysia’s chairmanship, Asean has engaged further with the Myanmar junta through humanitarian aid channels, a move experts view as constructive, but still far from enough to enable credible elections.