Asrul Hadi Abdullah Sani said it is “understandable” that Muda is considering throwing its hat into the ring, but warned that it would need to be more strategic in its approach, especially given its limited resources compared to larger parties.
“If Muda’s aim is to make a statement against PKR, it should choose a seat where it has a realistic chance of winning, taking into account its party identity and support base.
“Muda will have difficulty in making a dent in a Malay-majority seat and should instead focus on mixed seats,” he told FMT.
Sungai Bakap, a seat in the Penang state assembly, has a mixed electorate, with Malay voters comprising 59.4%, Chinese 22.5%, Indian 17.4%, and others 0.7%.
On June 8, a Penang Muda leader, who wished to remain anonymous, told FMT the youth party may contest the by-election on July 6, deeming it a “good time to contest” in view of Pakatan Harapan’s dwindling reputation.
He said Muda was keen to find out the voting trends in light of PH and Perikatan Nasional’s performance as the government and opposition, respectively.
He also said data compiled by the party showed that PH’s reputation among its voters has been steadily declining because of its performance.
Asrul, formerly of BowerGroupAsia, said Muda could take a small percentage of voters away from PKR in Sungai Bakap, but predicted that there would be no significant swing in votes towards the party.
“After Muda’s three candidates lost their deposits in the last Penang state election, keeping their deposit for the by-election can be seen as a plus for the party,” he said.
The candidates who contested in the state election last August were Vikneswary Harikrishnan (Perai), Lee Kim Noor (Batu Uban) and Loh Xiang Pin (Pantai Jerejak).
Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia said it would be difficult for Muda to win the seat.
However, he said, Muda could campaign on issues not covered by the bigger political parties such as corruption, institutional reforms, and issues relevant to the youth.
“Perhaps these issues can fire up the voters in Sungai Bakap and increase the turnout, which tends to be low in by-elections.
“More competition is good for democracy and small parties like Muda can hold bigger parties accountable,” he said.