Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said roughly 80% of the support the coalition enjoyed in the last general election was from non-Malay voters, a statistic that gives PH and Barisan Nasional the upper hand in the state polls.
Based on data from the 15th general election, a total of 743,293 non-Malay voters in the state turned out last year to cast their ballots, compared with 483,333 Malay voters.
PH won 10 of the 13 parliamentary seats in Penang while Perikatan Nasional secured the remaining three – Kepala Batas, Permatang Pauh and Tasek Gelugor.
Voters who backed either coalition were unlikely to change their support, he said.
“The island is solidly behind PH. On the mainland, apart from the three parliamentary seats (won by PN), the other four constituencies backed PH, due to solid support by the non-Malays,” he told FMT.
Azmi also said PN’s inability to woo non-Malays would hamper its ability to win more seats in the state, which might be compounded further by the race and religion card played by PAS leaders.
The coalition’s only multiracial component, Gerakan, was ineffective when it came to winning non-Malay votes, he said.
“Even though Muhyiddin (Yassin) said PN can get (nearly) 20 seats in Penang, it is highly doubtful because they can’t attract the non-Malay voters.
“Plus, the Malay voters in Penang are divided between Umno, Amanah and PKR. I think these are the drawbacks that PN has and it gives a huge advantage to the PH-BN coalition.”
Azmi said this when asked to comment on Penang PH chairman Chow Kon Yeow’s target of securing 30 to 32 seats.
James Chin of the University of Tasmania said the target set by Chow was achievable, given PN’s failure to penetrate the Chinese majority seats during GE15.
PN made inroads in certain Malay majority parliamentary seats, which covered 10 to 12 state seats, he said, adding that was why PH-BN securing 30 seats “is not a problem”.
“Non-Malays are very afraid of PAS because PAS wants to set up an Islamic state,” said Chin, identifying the reason for their distrust of PN which in turn makes Chow’s target for PH-BN achievable.
Both Azmi and Chin believe PN will only be able to win 10 seats, half of what PN chairman Muhyiddin said it can secure.