He must be very careful about how he frames a delay in calling for a general election, should he choose to do so, according to political analysts.
Both Ismail’s superiors in Umno, party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and his deputy Mohamad Hasan, have been vocal proponents of calling for early national elections, as have many grassroots supporters.
However, those aligned to Ismail have resisted these calls, citing a need for political stability and the risks associated with holding a general election during the pandemic.
Akademi Nusantara senior fellow Azmi Hassan said if Ismail opts not to push for the dissolution of Parliament, given the Johor results, he will need to manage public perception carefully so as to not appear power hungry.
“At the moment, the perception is that (Ismail) is reluctant to call for elections because he won’t be the prime minister afterwards given that he has Mohamad Hasan (deputy president) and Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (president) both above him in the Umno hierarchy.
“For him to delay GE15, he would need to sell the idea that the pandemic is what is stopping them from being held, not his position.
“He needs to choose his words carefully. If he makes a mistake, those who want an election will claim he is trying to cling on to power for as long as possible.”
Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said it would be in Ismail’s best interest to delay a general election until Umno’s leadership is cleared up via party polls.
“If he is determined to hold on to power for a long time, he must leverage his incumbency advantage so he can have the final say on GE15 candidates and nominate those loyal to him,” he told FMT.
On whether Ismail risks alienating grassroots supporters of the party, Oh said it’s unlikely to factor into any decision on the timing of an election.
“Nowadays, politicians are more concerned about their own political survival, however short-term, than the political support for their party from any single community.
“In any case, it would appear Malay voters will continue to support Umno for the foreseeable future,” Oh said.