A close race is expected for the remaining 11 seats, among BN, PH and Perikatan Nasional.

In its report, based on a study of 1,391 participants in the southern state, the Ilham Centre concluded that BN’s success would largely come from the 39 constituencies where Malays make up the ethnic majority.

The centre also said the data indicated that the influx of nearly 870,000 newly registered young voters is unlikely to have a significant bearing on the results.

While often talked about as a wildcard in the elections, the think tank said its surveys suggested that these new voters were more likely to select candidates according to who their families had traditionally supported, as they did not hold strong political views.

On the expected poor results from PH, whose 10 seats would be 26 fewer than what it had won in the 2018 state polls, it said the opposition bloc seemed “helpless and without direction” after suffering bad losses in Melaka and Sarawak.

It said the opposition parties also lacked a central figure who could unite them, which would only benefit the incumbent BN.

Another factor in BN’s favour was the centre’s finding that Chinese voters appeared hesitant about turning up to cast their ballots.

This was unlike the Malays who expressed their intention to go out in droves, benefiting BN’s dominant component — Umno.

The large number of opposition parties contesting also risked splitting the vote, which could also help BN, the centre concluded.

The 11 seats the centre described as “too difficult to predict” were Paloh, Endau, Simpang Jeram, Kemelah, Bekok, Tangkak, Yong Peng, Parit Yaani, Puteri Wangsa, Kempas and Kota Iskandar.

This was due to a combination of expected low voter turnout from the Chinese community and the potential splitting of the Malay vote between BN and PN.