Ease lockdown according to scientific data, say health experts

Ease lockdown according to scientific data, say health experts

The government has said it will decide on SOPs if daily infections drop to below 4,000 cases, but experts say it should look at localised figures.

Dr Lee Boon Chye and Dr Sanjay Rampal say the government should not adopt a ‘blanket approach’ when reviewing the Covid-19 SOPs.
PETALING JAYA:
The decision to continue or relax the SOPs during the total lockdown must be based on data-driven studies and not depend on just the number of daily Covid-19 infections, say health experts.

This comes following the government’s proposal to review the need to continue or relax the SOPs under MCO 3.0 if the number of daily infections drops below 4,000 cases.

Senior minister for security Ismail Sabri Yaakob said the targeted figure was set by the health ministry to ensure the daily infectivity rate nationwide can be reduced.

However, former deputy health minister Dr Lee Boon Chye and Universiti Malaya epidemiology specialist Dr Sanjay Rampal said rather than adopting a “blanket approach” on the decision, the government should review the SOPs based on localities, high-risk areas, and high rate of community transmission, among others.

Dr Lee Boon Chye.

“After two weeks of lockdown, the health ministry should have a clearer picture of ongoing clusters and the distribution of active cases. Therefore, the decision should be data-driven, based on whether the active cases are in localised areas or more widespread,” Lee told FMT.

He said if most of the active cases were recorded at workplaces and among foreign workers, it would be possible to relax the SOPs even if the daily infections remained above the targeted figure.

“In this case, the government should implement (the) enhanced movement control order (EMCO) at localities with a high number of active cases and community transmission,” he said.

Dr Sanjay Rampal.

Sanjay agreed, saying that SOP relaxation should vary based on sectors.

“The effect of SOP relaxation on transmission varies by sectors. For example, shopping, physical recreation and eating out are less likely to affect disease transmission compared to working in factories or staying in congested housing,” he told FMT.

He said the SOPs should be recalibrated based on the current epidemiological indicators.

SOP recalibration should be led by an algorithm that integrates caseloads (total and case densities accounting for population size), percentage of community transmission, transmissibility (Rt) and healthcare utilisation.

Localising SOPs to regions rather than the national level would also improve its benefit-to-cost ratio, he said.

The government announced a total nationwide lockdown, similar to the first MCO, from June 1 to June 14. It was extended for another two weeks from June 15 until June 28.

Ismail had said the decision was necessary because of high daily Covid-19 numbers then.

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