The Invoke founder said data gathered by the policy research outfit did not support the speculation, and that he had relayed the findings to opposition leaders including those from PPBM.
“If you ask me if there is going to be a game-changing tsunami because of PPBM and Mahathir, I say no, that is not going to happen.
“I have told this every day to Mahathir, Muhyiddin Yassin and their party leaders and they accept it.
“You can ask them both if this is what I presented in our meetings. There are no PPBM members that are hurt by what I said because they know that this data helps us deploy the best tactic and strategy at the best seats.
“In order to win, we have to play our own roles and we have to remain extremely objective,” he said at an Invoke event.
Rafizi added that his views were based solely on the numbers crunched out by Invoke.
“I based my predictions on the numbers we gather. The numbers are clear and they indicate that it will not happen.”
Adding that there were still non-Malay voters who were not comfortable with supporting Mahathir, he said nonetheless, the data did not belittle the PPBM chairman.
“Instead, it accepts the role played by PPBM to win Malay votes. We have to base this on accurate data.
“The numbers are such and this is important for us to accept in order for us to know where our strengths lie. Remember, we (PKR) became an opposition party with just 30,000 members at one point in 1999.
“At that point, when Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail and Nurul Izzah Anwar gave speeches, there was almost no one who would stop and listen but they still entered the (political) arena.
“This is because elections have never been won by party supporters but by support from the people.”
The likelihood of a Malay tsunami, like the 2008 Indian tsunami fuelled by the uprising of Hindraf the year before, has been intensely debated by leaders from both sides of the political divide.
Many opposition leaders, and even former MIC and MCA leaders, believe that Mahathir is capable of causing a Malay tsunami that will swing a large chunk of Malay votes towards the opposition.
Many have said that if this happens, it will likely deliver Putrajaya to PH.
However, Tourism and Culture Minister Nazri Aziz, who is also an Umno Supreme Council member, refuted the possibility of a Malay tsunami as “Malay votes are now divided and no one can obtain a two-thirds majority”.
Johor menteri besar and Umno liaison committee chairman Mohamed Khaled Nordin meanwhile claimed the issue had been sensationalised and that Umno had its own strengths to face the challenge from Malay-based opposition parties such as PPBM and PAS.
PPBM’s new recruit Maszlee Malik believes PPBM has what it takes to trigger a Malay tsunami after the events that unfolded following the 1MDB exposes by international publications.
However, he said the most significant issues were the sacking of Prime Minister Najib Razak’s former deputy, Muhyiddin Yassin, and Mahathir quitting Umno.
There are also some who believe that PAS, which aims to be the third force besides PH and BN, will whip up enough Malay support for a tsunami of its own.