Both Arnold Puyok of the Social Sciences Faculty and Jeniri Amir of the Languages and Communications Faculty said BN had a great advantage in the opposition’s current disunity.
However, Umno insiders told FMT a snap election would be risky for BN because, as one of them put it, “it’s not just the opposition that is in disarray.”
Sabah Umno sources said the party was still reeling from the loss of Shafie Apdal, the Umno vice-president who left the party last year after his membership was suspended.
But Puyok said BN was “relatively stable compared to the opposition, especially with the emergence of new parties, which will benefit BN and weaken the opposition.”
Jeniri agreed, saying Sabah’s opposition was still uncoordinated.
“Everyone wants to be the hero, everyone wants to be the leader,” he said. “So it is difficult to come up with a unified force to face BN.”
A recent Borneo Today report said Prime Minister Najib Razak’s visit to Sabah could be a precursor to early state elections as the BN chairman wanted to see for himself how prepared Sabah BN was.
The report mentioned April 13 as the possible date for the dissolution of the Sabah State Assembly. It quoted pundits who said nomination day would be April 21 and polling day May 5.
Jeniri said BN was conducting a lot of research on the ground. “They are trying to collect feedback from various sources through various methods, including questionnaires. If there’s real support for BN based on this research, then I believe they will come to a final decision to have the snap polls.”
He said BN would be looking at a victory in Sabah as the moral boost it would need to win the next general election.
However, there is worry within Umno not only because of unhappiness over Shafie Apdal but also over the fallout from the corruption scandal involving the Sabah Water Department.
One Umno source said, “Should BN win convincingly then it would be good, but should it lose just five or six more seats it could prove a problem in the coming general election because the opposition could use the reduction to suggest Sabah is not the fixed deposit it used to be.”
Prominent Sabahan youth activist Jufazli Shi Ahmad has even predicted BN’s ouster should a snap election be called. He said BN’s chances of coming out victorious were “practically non-existent.”
He said Sabahans had become “fed up with false promises”.
“For five terms and over twenty years BN has failed to live up to its manifesto to turn Sabah into a developed state,” he told FMT.
“The roads are in terrible condition and we don’t even have basic utilities like electricity and water in most places.
He said the existence of many opposition parties was an advantage, not a disadvantage, to Sabahans.
“What political analysts fail to see is the more opposition parties Sabah has, the more choices we have too. In truth, we’re actually waiting for a snap election so that we can finally change the government.”
He said Shafie Apdal, “unlike Najib and Musa Aman”, was popular on the ground. “Shafie Apdal has got a lot of charisma and he’s very friendly with the Sabahans on the ground. Sabahans like him.”