According to their estimates, only one nation would be able to feed its population in seven food categories if this catastrophic scenario were to occur.
Published in the journal Nature Food, the study was conducted by researchers from the University of Göttingen (Germany) and the University of Edinburgh (Scotland).
They used data from the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) to assess the ability of 186 countries to supply themselves with legumes, nuts and seeds, vegetables, fruit, starchy foods, dairy products, meat, and fish.
Taking these seven major food categories into account, only one country on the list would be capable of self-sufficiency, ie, capable of providing food for its inhabitants across all seven categories without depending on other countries. This is Guyana, a South American country with a population of around 800,000.
Next come China and Vietnam, which would be able to supply themselves with six out of seven food categories. Out of 186 countries, 154 can meet the requirements of two to five of the seven food groups.
But overall, the picture is worrying.
Only one country in seven is self-sufficient in five or more food groups. Most of these nations are located in Europe and South America.
The other countries have low production and depend almost exclusively on a single trading partner for more than half of their imports.
“Low self-sufficiency and overdependence on a few countries for imports threaten their capability to respond to global shocks, particularly for small states,” the report stated. Worse still, some countries are unable to achieve self-sufficiency in any of the food groups studied. This is the case in Afghanistan, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Macao, Qatar, and Yemen.
Establishing more resilient supply chains
This finding is all the more alarming given the recent restrictions imposed by the United States since Donald Trump returned to power in January 2025.
“International food trade and cooperation is essential for healthy and sustainable diets. However, heavy reliance on imports from single countries can leave nations vulnerable.
“Building resilient food supply chains is imperative for ensuring public health,” cautioned the study’s first author, Jonas Stehl, a researcher at the University of Göttingen, quoted in a news release.
The need for nations to be self-sufficient is also crucial in tackling the climate crisis. While a large majority of European countries overproduce meat and dairy products, demand for these foods is very low in African countries.
Less than half of countries produce enough foods such as beans and peas, as well as nuts and seeds, while only a quarter produce enough vegetables to meet domestic demand.
“Climate shocks are reshaping the agriculture sector and will continue to intensify. Open trade and innovation are essential to secure healthy, low-carbon diets,” said study co-author, Alexander Vonderschmidt, PhD researcher at the University of Edinburgh’s Division of Global Agriculture and Food Systems.