A little over a year has passed since an elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy was ousted, replaced by a State Administration Council headed by armed forces leader Senior Gen Min Aung Hlaing.
Worryingly for the military, some armed ethnic groups have aligned with the People’s Defense Force, a civilian resistance movement opposed to the takeover, providing them with weapons and training.
Myanmar’s leaders see Saturday’s Union Day ceremony in the capital, Naypyitaw, as a chance to bring the leaders of these ethnic militias to the table.
“To achieve a lasting peace, we need to find a solution through democratic talks,” the State Administration Council said Sunday.
In the 1947 Panglong Agreement, forged during the waning days of British colonial rule, independence leader Aung San promised the ethnic minorities living in mountainous areas autonomy under a federal system.
But Aung San was assassinated before the country gained independence, and this vow was never kept.
As of Friday, representatives of nine armed groups had expressed their intention to attend the ceremony, said Zaw Min Tun, a spokesperson for Myanmar’s military, known as the Tatmadaw.
But militants fighting with the civilian resistance have been cool to the invitation.
Local media report that the chairperson of the Kachin Independence Organization, a powerful force in northern Myanmar, said in a Feb 5 speech that “all ethnic groups need to unite to fight the dictatorship of the military”.
A senior member of the Karenni National Progressive Party in the eastern state of Kayah said if Myanmar’s leaders want to talk peace, they should include the National Unity Government formed by ousted lawmakers, as well as the People’s Defense Force.
The Tatmadaw has struggled to stamp out resistance to the change in government.
Since the military takeover in February 2021, Myanmar has seen more than 2,600 armed clashes, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, a US nongovernmental organisation that tracks such incidents.
Yet some of the ethnic militias think political negotiations with the military are necessary.
“They are posturing against the military because they cannot ignore the public’s anti-military sentiment, but they do not always mean it,” a person familiar with these groups said.
The armed ethnic groups have a deep mistrust of the Burmese majority that has stood atop Myanmar’s society for decades. A united front with the civilian resistance movement may not last if the minorities see no prospect of earning the high level of autonomy they seek.
In a sign the military are on alert for attacks or demonstrations around the ceremony, mobile internet access will be sharply restricted across a wide area Saturday, according to a telecommunications industry source and information shared on social media.
The restrictions reportedly will affect 3G and 4G networks in Yangon and other areas from 4am to 11pm local time. The Japanese Embassy in Myanmar told Japanese nationals in an email Friday night that it had received information about possible mobile data restrictions.
Curbs on mobile internet access initially were common after the military takeover but had mostly ended by around May.