Indonesia’s dark evening unfolded when there was a stampede at a league match between Arema Malang and Persebaya Surabaya at the Kanjuruhan Stadium in Malang, East Java. Security forces fired tear gas into the crowd after some fans had entered the playing field. A crush formed at an exit and many people died from asphyxiation.

The incident has shocked a nation that has seen a fair share of soccer violence – some estimates put fan deaths between 1994 and 2019 at 74.

Fans such as Putera Kusumatoro were not surprised, and point to long-standing issues of mismanagement, corruption, heavy-handed policing and hooliganism. “We have had the police using tear gas a lot to control the crowd inside or outside football stadiums,” the Jakarta-based supporter told Nikkei Asia.

Indonesian authorities now have many issues to resolve, ranging from fan violence to a review of policing and security arrangements. Without tackling these problems head on, the country risks losing prizes such as its hosting of the Fifa Under-20 World Cup next year – not to mention a potential joint bid for the senior men’s World Cup in the next decade or so with Southeast Asian neighbours or Australia.

The catastrophe brings back painful memories of similar tragedies elsewhere. Some, such as the 1989 Hillsborough disaster in England, prompted positive reforms. Others, such as the 2001 Accra Soccer Stadium tragedy in Ghana, have had long-term negative consequences.

The deaths of 97 Liverpool fans at the Hillsborough stadium in Sheffield led to a slew of reforms including modern all-seating, family-friendly stadiums that helped to drive the formation of the hugely successful English Premier League. Yet throughout the seventies and eighties, few in England could have imagined that the country would become home to the most popular and lucrative league in the world.

“There was a considerable degree of social fatigue amongst members of the British population – people were simply fed-up of the endless flow of crowd incidents, some of which had resulted in considerable losses of life,” said Simon Chadwick, professor of sport and the geopolitical economy at SKEMA Business School in Paris.

Chadwick pointed to the attitude of then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher who was determined that football had to change.

“The question for Indonesia now is: have the country, its population and those involved in football reached a tipping point? If so, then the country needs a frank, sensible and non-partisan conversation with itself about what happens next,” he said.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo vowed reforms on a visit to the site of the disaster on Wednesday.

“We need improvements in the whole management, management of stadium spectators, time, security. It must all be fully audited so that this tragedy won’t happen again,” he told reporters. “I want to know the root of the problem that caused this tragedy so that we can get the best solution.”

But should Indonesia sit on its hands, it may go well the way of Ghana after the Accra disaster – during which the police also used tear gas – that resulted in the deaths of 126 people.

According to leading Ghanaian soccer journalist Gary Al-Smith, pre-tragedy attendances averaged 20,000 at big games in the main cities.

“The Ghana Premier League, before 2001, was well-patronised,” Al-Smith told Nikkei. “Following the disaster, there were hardly any fans at games.”

The most recent data from Ghana’s National Sports Authority puts the league average attendance at around 500 per game in the last four years. “It is not uncommon to see a 40,000 capacity venue have 30 fans for a top-flight match now,” said Al-Smith.

For Indonesia, the hosting of the Under-20 World Cup – the biggest international football tournament to be held in the Southeast Asian nation – is a matter of national pride, and Widodo has taken a personal interest in the event.

But there are now concerns that Fifa, which banned the Indonesia federation from the international game from 2015 to 2016 after governmental interference in the running of the sport, will remove the event from this football-mad country of around 270 million people. Widodo has said this is a matter for the world governing body.

Fifa president Gianni Infantino has expressed his condolences, calling it “a dark day for all involved in football and a tragedy beyond comprehension,” but there has yet been no comment about the U-20 World Cup.

Yunus Nusi, secretary general of the Indonesian federation, has said that Fifa had requested a report into the disaster and it is expected that officials from the world governing body will visit the Southeast Asian nation in the coming weeks.

“As the custodian of world football, Fifa must always be mindful of the potential for crowd violence,” said Chadwick, who added that the governing body also has to consider reputational and economic issues such as broadcasting deals and sponsorship contracts.

As the world’s fourth most populous country, Indonesia’s potential importance as a football market is also likely to be a factor in any decision. “Fifa has a duty to support the development of football in countries such as Indonesia,” said Chadwick. “It will also be aware of both the country’s population size and its economic strength.”

However, Kusumatoro believes fans will understand if the U-20 World Cup is relocated. “Humanity is the most important thing right now and it is better for our football to focus more on fan security, so this kind of tragedy will not be repeated in the future.”