It was a landslide victory for Barisan Nasional in the Kinabatangan parliamentary and the Lamag state by-elections last Saturday. Their candidates not only retained both seats but also secured them with far larger majorities than before.
In Kinabatangan, Naim Kurniawan Moktar won with a majority of 14,214 votes, more than three times the 4,330 majority secured by his late father, Bung Moktar Radin, in the 15th general election.
Similarly, in Lamag, Ismail Ayob won with a majority of 5,681 votes, more than the 153 votes in the Sabah state election last November, where he contested as an independent and lost to Bung.
The two by-elections were held following Bung’s death on Dec 5.
Early predictions suggested BN’s victory would be driven mainly by sympathy votes, especially for Naim, prompting the Umno Youth treasurer to urge voters to assess his capability rather than just his family ties.
However, the ballot results show the win was not solely based on sympathy. The increased BN vote share compared with GE15 and the Sabah state election indicates that support from unity government partners in Sabah also played a significant role.
Since nomination day, leaders from Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) had taken turns to support the campaigns of Naim Kurniawan and Ismail, under the mandate of GRS chairman Hajiji Noor.
Among them was Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah vice-president Masiung Banah, who is also the Kuamut assemblyman, one of the state seats under the Kinabatangan parliamentary constituency.
“We have no time for revenge, emotion or sulking, but must focus on development and meeting the needs of the people,” he said during a campaign event, signalling that the intense rivalry seen during the Sabah state election had ended.
The message from voters is clear: they support the Sabah government led by GRS because they want stability. BN and Umno, which now have six assemblymen again, also benefited from this momentum with strong wins in Kinabatangan and Lamag.
Voters backed candidates supported by the unity government because they want GRS to continue Sabah’s development momentum and to legitimise post-election support.
Imagine if GRS had fielded its own candidates. As the state government, it could have offered incentives to attract voters. Yet the coalition chose to help its partners in the unity government.
Umno-BN still not out of the woods
After suffering major losses in last year’s state election, some may have assumed these by-election wins would mark a revival for BN and Umno in Sabah. But the reality is still far from that.
These areas are BN strongholds, but support has been declining and could slip to other parties.
In Kinabatangan, the majority of 6,326 in GE12 rose to 9,731 in GE14, then dropped slightly to 9,478 in GE14. By GE15, it plunged to 4,330.
So, if Umno leaders claim the results prove a full comeback, they must acknowledge Sabah’s more complex political landscape: the win was driven by multiple factors.
The Lamag state seat, introduced in the 2020 state election, also shows the trend. Bung won with a 661-vote majority then, but it fell to 153 votes in GE15 – a razor-thin margin.
Faced with strong local sentiment that shaped the last state election, Umno-BN may need cooperation from Sabah-based parties to revive itself, and this must be done without excessive demands or nostalgia-driven bargaining.
Warisan local sentiment rejected
Warisan, still riding the momentum of winning 25 seats in the last state election, entered Kinabatangan and Lamag with the same local sentiment campaign, implying that only it understood Sabah’s pulse.
In every physical campaign and on social media, Shafie Apdal’s party repeatedly pushed local narratives and urged voters to reject so-called “Malaya parties” or those cooperating with them.
But the results were the same: voters rejected them. In fact, their candidate in Kinabatangan saw a sharp drop in votes.
Compared with the 12,512 votes obtained by Mazliwati Malek in GE15, Warisan’s by-election candidate, Saddi Abdul Rahman, received only 5,638 votes. This significant decline suggests that this sentiment-based campaigning without tangible achievements is not enough.
Mazliwati, who contested in Lamag this time, received only 1,588 votes. The attempt to increase Warisan’s representation to 26 seats failed.
This raises questions about whether Warisan can sustain the momentum in future elections. A misstep could cost the party one of the three parliamentary seats it currently holds.
In conclusion, the Kinabatangan and Lamag by-election results send a clear message: voters choose stability, not nostalgia or emotion. The votes were not merely sympathy, but support for a working Sabah government.
In the land below the wind, voters are becoming more mature. Political parties that want to stay relevant must cooperate wisely, read reality, and focus on developing constituencies rather than just talking.
The writer is the editor of FMT’s Malay News Desk.
This article represents the writer’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect FMT’s position.