If you’re less than a hundred years old, these times are the scariest times that we’ve ever lived in, with some people literally saying we’re on the cusp of World War III and perhaps a nuclear Armageddon.
Here’s the funny thing though: through all the scary times in human existence, while many squirm and dread, there are also many who exult and celebrate.
It’s the innate tribalism of human beings, this fear of the “other”, that hasn’t quite disappeared despite the best efforts of many prophets and philosophers against it. Perhaps that’s because there are as many prophets and philosophers fighting for it.
Anyway, Israel has started shooting at Iran, and Iran is shooting back. Now the US has joined Israel in shooting at the Iranians.
So begins an undeclared war between two nations run by different kinds of mullahs – one side wearing turbans, the other wearing yarmulkes, and the third wearing a fake tan, and all, without exception, claiming God to be on their side.
As often is the case in the past, it’s about Iran having, or being close to having, atomic bombs, the mother of all weapons of mass destruction.
Many claims have been made about the bomb, as by Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, who first raised Iran’s imminent possession of nuclear weapons in 1996 and has repeated them regularly ever since – but there’s no evidence Iran has any.
Looking at the facts
Just months ago, in March, the US director of national intelligence testified to Congress that Iran is not close to having nuclear weapons, and that the leadership of Iran hasn’t directed the construction of any.
Putting aside your trust, or lack of, in the western political system, at the very least you can agree that the US government is not very likely to lie to make Iran look innocent.
So, we can take it as a fact that Iran doesn’t have any nukes and isn’t close to having any. And it’s also a fact that they’re signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and have been open to regular inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Does Iran want to have nuclear weapons? I wouldn’t be surprised if they want to join the big nuclear powers as well as India, Pakistan and North Korea in the exclusive nuclear club.
Who has nukes?
Amid all these noises about the seemingly self-evident truth that it’s wrong for Iran to have nuclear weapons, it’s worth asking who else has them in the Middle East. Surprise surprise – the nation that already has such weapons is Israel, although you won’t hear much about it, if at all, in the non-stop media coverage on this matter.
And the nation that is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty? Israel. The nation that doesn’t allow IAEA inspectors to inspect their nuclear activities? You guessed it – Israel.
The west argues that Iran is evil, while Israel is the only good guy in the region – the only “democratic” nation, for whatever it’s worth – so therefore, nukes for Israel are OK, and nukes for Iran aren’t.
Seeking regime change
Among the hawks and warmongers in the US, there’s a lot of enthusiasm for yet another “regime change” based on yet another accusation about another Middle Eastern country having weapons of mass destruction, or WMD.
Remember George Bush the younger and Iraq? Remember, too, that regime changes never end well. Many of these changes, brought about by the west in the Middle East, Asia, South America, Africa and elsewhere, didn’t quite work out as planned, if they didn’t actually make things worse.
Just ask the Iranians. In 1953 the US and the UK instigated a military coup d’etat against Iran’s democratically-elected government to bring in a military regime that supported a west-friendly monarch, the Shah of Iran.
Ruthless and repressive in ruling Iran through the help of the US, UK and Israel, the Shah spent hundreds of millions on parties to impress his friends. Many Iranians still remember that.
When the Shah was overthrown by Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979, Iran became a theocratic state, and pursued a harsh version of Shia Islam that views the west, especially the US and Israel, as “the Great Satan” who seeks Iran’s destruction. You certainly can’t blame them for that.
So, in any discussion about “who started it”, the starting point has to be when America and the UK brought down the Iranian government in 1953 to protect their oil interests.
Inside Iran
I don’t have much love for theocratic despots, whether they wear robes or skull caps or slick suits. Underneath, they’re the same, with perhaps the suit-wearing ones worse for being hypocrites as well.
I’ve been to the length and breadth of Iran, seeing real, everyday Iranians. I can’t quite say I understand Iran, as such a huge nation with such a long history isn’t one for easy simplification.
This I can say though – Iranians are people, just like you and I: no better perhaps, but certainly no worse. Their leaders may be bad, but they’ve been enduring almost a century of harm at the hand of western powers and are certainly justified in their hatred of the west.
One thing that struck me was the sight of many faded pictures of men hanging on lamp posts along the main streets of small towns across the country.
What I’d thought were pictures of local politicians turned out to pictures of their “martyrs” – those soldiers killed in the horrible Iran-Iraq war, one where the US actually supported Saddam Hussein’s attack on Iran.
Netanyahu factor
Modern Iran has suffered disproportionately in the hands of the west, and hence it’s easier to understand their antipathy towards the west rather than the west’s hatred towards it. And the west’s hatred against Iran is due to one factor: Israel, or perhaps one person – Netanyahu.
He has been scheming to get the US into a war against Iran for decades. America however, has resisted so far, while being supportive and even excusing much of what Israel has done.
Until now. The Israelis know how to play Donald Trump, especially after a few bruising weeks where Trump looked weak and isolated – the miserable military parade in Washington DC, the nationwide “No King” protests by millions on the same day, and him being isolated and mocked at the G7 meeting in Canada.
Trump must have weighed his promise to the American people that he won’t start a new war versus the need for him to strut around looking strong wielding his massive military. We know which option won, as if there’s ever any doubt.
So yes, we could still have an Israel-US war against Iran. Most of the world will disapprove, including much of middle America as well as the increasingly frustrated MAGA crowd wary about putting American lives in danger, especially on behalf of another nation that is increasingly seen as manipulative of the US.
Should this war escalate, the combined firepower of the US and Israel will wreak havoc on Iran. But as we’re seeing, Iran will also cause untold havoc on their enemies, starting what will surely be an asymmetric war on and off the battlefield.
An immediate impact will be on the oil price: it will surely rise now that Iran will start throttling the Straits of Hormuz. We’ll all be feeling the economic impact soon, with the shooting getting serious.
The real winners
War isn’t just about firepower. It’s even more about willpower. Years after the US declares “Mission Accomplished”, long after many news and election cycles have passed while body bags keep returning home, the US will tire of the war, and likely, of Israel too.
Then we’ll understand that the real winners of wars aren’t the ones who inflict the most damage, but rather the ones which achieve their objectives.
In Iran’s case, it will be about surviving as a sovereign nation and an Islamic republic, and not as somebody’s petrol pump. It’s about outlasting their enemies regardless of the costs.
They’ve had triumphs and disasters over their thousands of years of history. The people of Iran, even those who hate the clerics running the country, will not rise and effect a regime change that Netanyahu longs for.
The streets of their towns will carry thousands of new pictures of martyrs in this new war. But they will survive. And the mullahs will likely be even more strongly entrenched in power.
The same can’t be said about the leaders of Israel and the US who are agitating to attack Iran. They’ll most likely be out of office, and their nations’ already tenuous reputations in the world would be in tatters.
Israel may have finally overreached. In the US even many far-right partisans are speaking out against Israel. These are the true antisemites – the admirers of Hitler and the Holocaust who see Israel’s existence purely as preparation for its eventual destruction as foretold by the Book of Revelation of the Bible.
They are not the kind of people you’d want as friends, and as more and more of them turn against you, you might have to start worrying about the true antisemites whom you can’t bomb into non-existence.
As one US senator boastfully says, “Game on!”. But I doubt his constituents and fellow citizens will be that happy later if they indeed get into a shooting war with Iran that they can’t win.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.