From Ong Kian Ming

The upcoming by-election in Kuala Kubu Baharu (KKB), a semi-urban seat located in the Hulu Selangor district, will provide one of the toughest electoral challenges for DAP, the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition and this unity government since the state elections of 2023.

The May 11 results will be very close, and if DAP is to retain this seat, it will be very close, by a margin of fewer than 1,000 votes compared to its 4,119 winning majority in the 2023 state elections.

The political environment does not favour PH at the moment but with a well-coordinated campaign strategy and messaging, DAP may just pass this test by a small margin.

The KKB state seat was first won by the late Lee Kee Hiong of DAP in the 2013 general election with 52.3% of the vote and a majority of 1,702 votes. With the Malay vote swing in favour of PH in the 2018 general election and some of the Malay votes going to PAS, DAP’s vote share increased to 57.1% with a majority of 7,134 votes.

In the 2022 general election, using the polling stream results from the Hulu Selangor parliamentary seat, PH’s vote share was reduced to 48.1% with PAS-Perikatan Nasional (PN) taking 27.4% of the vote compared to 21.2% for MCA-Barisan Nasional (BN), with a majority of 6,199 in favour of PH.

In the 2022 general election, the PAS candidate won the parliamentary seat of Hulu Selangor, which was previously held by PKR-PH.

In 2023, without the BN candidate, DAP won 54.4% of the popular vote and a majority of 4,119. The PAS-PN candidate increased its vote share to 39.3%.

Table 1: Results and Ethnic Composition of Kuala Kubu Baru (GE2013, GE2018, GE2022 and PRN 2023)

Source: Election Commission

From 2013 to 2023, the percentage of Malay voters in this seat steadily increased from 32.7% in 2013 to 43.9% in 2018 general election because of the delimitation exercise, and then to 48.1% because of the Undi18 initiative, and most recently to 49.3% in the 2023 state election.

In terms of ethnic composition, KKB is now a 50% Malay, 50% non-Malay seat.

There are a number of reasons why DAP faces many uphill challenges in this by-election. It would not be inaccurate to say that many DAP and PH supporters have been disappointed by the performance of the unity government in the slow pace of delivering institutional reform, in the weak economic narrative (even though FDI numbers and economic growth continue to be healthy), especially with regards to increases in the cost of living and the cost of doing business, and in the public fights between some PH and BN leaders, especially in the recent weeks over the KK Mart “Allah” socks issue.

Although I have argued in my podcast that DAP is not in danger of turning into an MCA 2.0 anytime soon, the general sentiment among non-Malay voters seems to be moving towards this direction.

These factors mean that the turnout among non-Malay voters is likely to reduce noticeably in this by-election, especially since the results won’t affect the stability of the Selangor state government.

There is also the possibility that some of the campaigns to ask Indian voters to “boycott” this by-election may gain traction. Some non-Malay voters may even cast their votes in favour of a PN candidate as a protest vote against DAP and the unity government, although this number is likely to be small, at least for this by-election.

Table 2 below shows my own estimates of the Malay, Chinese and Indian turnout, and support for DAP-PH in the 2023 state election. The estimated Malay and Chinese turnouts were similar to the overall turnout at 67% and 68% respectively. The Indian turnout was already lower in the 2023 state election in KKB at 60%. The estimated Malay support for DAP-PH was at 22%, meaning that a large proportion of the Malay voters who supported the BN candidate in the 2022 general election shifted their support to the PAS-PN candidate in 2023.

This is consistent with my own analysis of the results in the 47 state seats which DAP contested in for the 2023 state election where four out of five Malay voters who voted for BN in 2022 shifted their votes to PN in 2023.

Table 2: Estimated turnout and DAP / PH support among Malay, Chinese and Indian voters in the 2023 state elections

Source: Own Analysis

For this by-election, DAP and its allies will be campaigning on two fronts – to minimise the protest vote and the decrease in turnout among non-Malay voters.

Table 3 below shows the estimated turnout and overall support for the DAP- PH-unity government (UG) under three scenarios.

Scenario 1 (S1) is the most optimistic outcome for DAP where the reduction in turnout among non-Malay voters is minimised and not significantly different from the Malay turnout, and where the overall support does not decrease significantly from 2023.

Scenario 2 (S2) is where there are some expected protest votes and a noticeable reduction in turnout, especially among the non-Malay voters.

Scenario 3 (S3) is where there is a significant decrease in non-Malay turnout and a decrease in support for DAP among all voters.

Table 3: Estimated Turnout and DAP Majority under Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 in the KKB by-election

Source: Own Estimates

Notice that under all scenarios, the level of support among non-Malays is still significantly above 50%. But because the Malay vote is likely to remain with or swing even more towards PN, any small drops in non-Malay turnout and support will have a noticeable effect on the final result.

With an overall turnout of 58%, Malay support of 20%, Chinese support of 90%, and Indian support of 80%, DAP will be able to win this seat with an estimated majority of fewer than 1,000 votes.

But if the turnout of Chinese voters drops further to just above 50% and the turnout of Indian voters drops to 45%, and Malay support drops to just 15% with Chinese support at 85% and Indian support at 75% (Scenario 2), DAP will lose this seat by almost 2,000 votes.

In the worst-case scenario where the turnout of Chinese and Indian voters drops to below 50% and Chinese and Indian support drops to 80% and 70% respectively, DAP may end up losing this seat by more than 4,000 votes.

The last scenario is not likely but not impossible, depending on the effectiveness of the campaign by DAP-PH-UG and also on the part of PN.

I will discuss the contours of the campaign in Part 2 of this article.

Ong Kian Ming is the Selangor DAP treasurer.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.