By Liew Chin Tong
Gerakan President Mah Siew Keong has made one of the most outlandish statements of our time by saying that the DAP will benefit from the latest Election Commission redelineation exercise.
At the same time, MCA President Liow Tiong Lai is also making a similar case to paint MCA as a victim of the redelineation exercise besides trying very hard to imply that MCA’s supposed losses in the exercise are DAP’s gains.
There are even opinion pieces in the Chinese media implying that through the redelineation exercise, Umno intends to favour DAP at the expense of MCA and Gerakan.
Such statements are malicious falsehoods and nothing could be further from the truth.
The truth is that Umno is in trouble and it is worried about whether it can continue to hold on to power. The sole purpose of the 2016 redelineation exercise seems to be to help Umno win by default, with or without MCA and Gerakan, as these parties have been dependent on Umno votes to win seats.
Johor state seats, parliamentary seats
The case of Johor clearly explains the situation.
If the redelineation exercise is approved without amendments, and assuming that previous voting trends persist in the next general election (GE14), DAP will lose two state seats – Perling (proposed new name for N46 Pengkalan Rinting) and N55 Pekan Nanas.
In addition, DAP could potentially lose another three seats to Barisan Nasional (BN) – Johor Jaya, Tangkak and Bekok.
It is projected that the DAP’s majority vote in these three seats will be reduced to less than five per cent, a razor thin margin that puts these seats in danger.
Note that Bekok, while seemingly not impacted in this redelineation exercise, was already severely affected by the so-called boundary correction exercise that SPR conducted in April 2016, which had caused 1,100 voters to be shifted out from the Bekok polling district. Based on our estimates, 70 per cent of these voters voted against BN in the last general election (GE13).
DAP contested the state seat of Paloh in GE13 and lost by only 103 votes. In this redelineation exercise, the Election Commission has proposed to reallocate the entire Felda Kahang Barat polling district, which has 2,464 votes, from the Kahang polling district to the Paloh polling district.
Eighty per cent of Felda Kahang Barat voters voted BN in 2013. This is likely to secure BN’s victory in Paloh in the next round, thrashing DAP’s hope to win in Paloh.
Pakatan Harapan has five parliamentary seats in Johor, four held by DAP (Kulai, Kluang, Gelang Patah and Bakri) and another held by PKR (Batu Pahat). The redelineation exercise may bring mild positive effects to DAP’s electoral chances in Bakri, Kluang and Gelang Patah but will negatively impact Kulai and Batu Pahat. The electoral outcome of these seats could be mixed.
It’s crucial to understand why in places like Gelang Patah and Bakri, it would appear as though the EC is doing DAP a great favour. The reason is to save Umno’s marginal seats.
For Gelang Patah, several polling districts in which Nur Jazlan (Pulai MP, adjacent seat) did poorly in 2013 are proposed to be transferred to Gelang Patah.
For Bakri, a large polling district with 2,000 votes (BN polled only 20 per cent in 2013) under the Muar parliamentary seat, is to be transferred to Bakri. Muar is a marginal seat that the opposition has a fair chance to capture in the next general election.
Our allies in Pakatan Harapan are severely impacted by the redelineation. Bukit Batu is the only PKR state seat in Johor. Its 4,015 or 14 per cent healthy margin will be reduced to just 1,000 voters (3.7 per cent) after the exercise, making it within reach of BN.
To achieve this, the Election Commission (EC) has proposed the unthinkable and illogical move to include polling districts like Taman Teratai and Ulu Choh, which are located almost 50km away from the Bukit Batu town centre and administered by a different local authority – Bukit Batu is under Majlis Perbandaran Kulai, while Taman Teratai and Ulu Choh are under Majlis Perbandaran Johor Bahru Tengah.
Parit Yaani, the state seat held by incumbent Aminolhuda Hassan, the Johor Amanah chief, is also in grave danger. A large polling district with almost 2,000 voters is to be reassigned to neighbouring state seat Parit Raja (a safe seat for BN) and that will cause the 1,200 majority to be reduced to about 400.
Opposition seats in danger
So, my question to Mah is, how would DAP “benefit” from this redelineation exercise when we are at great risk of losing five out of 13 incumbent seats (40 per cent decrease) unless there is a Malay swing in our favour?
How would DAP “benefit” from this redelineation exercise when our allies are facing the danger of losing seats in Johor with which we have a chance to form a coalition government?
Most importantly, how would DAP “benefit” from this redelineation exercise when voters nationwide, including those in Johor, have to put up with greater inconvenience, injustices and outright lies as their sacred votes are manipulated to entrench BN rule in Johor and Malaysia?
It seems very clear that BN has a set of clear objectives they want to achieve by redrawing the electoral boundaries in different states.
In Selangor, it is to snatch back the state from the opposition coalition. In Perak and Negri Sembilan, it is to consolidate power, and attempt to achieve a two-third majority. In Johor, it is to weaken the opposition, keeping us from crossing the 18-seat line (number needed to deny BN a two-third majority in the state assembly).
Liew Chin Tong is Kluang MP and DAP National Political Education Director.
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