Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia said Federal Territories Amanah chief Khalid Samad was more likely testing the political climate rather than signalling a split.
“I think Amanah is too small a party to be the one to break the pact. If (PH chairman) Anwar Ibrahim later says they will work with BN, I don’t think Amanah would dare go against that,” she told FMT.
Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said Khalid’s remarks should be seen as early positioning for seat negotiations rather than a move towards a PH-BN confrontation.
He said aggressive initial demands were common in coalition politics to increase leverage, especially among smaller parties seeking to maintain relevance.
“This reflects Amanah’s efforts to step out of the shadow of larger parties like PKR and DAP by projecting a bolder and more competitive image,” he said.
Awang Azman also said Amanah appeared to be shifting its focus to urban areas having failed to compete effectively in PAS strongholds, as a splinter of the Islamic party.
“Amanah should be competing in PAS strongholds in line with its identity, but it has failed to do so. This is why it is focusing on urban areas and competing with unity government components like Umno.
“This is likely to prompt a reaction from Umno and could strain ties within the unity government,” he said.
However, he said, the current political reality, where a hung Parliament looks likely to be the norm after general elections, meant that parties could not “move solo” and were bound by the need for coalition survival.
On Thursday, Khalid said Amanah intended to contest in three or four parliamentary seats in the federal territories, particularly Putrajaya, Labuan and Titiwangsa.
While Amanah contested in Labuan in 2022, PKR vied for the Putrajaya seat in that general election.
Khalid, the Amanah communications director, was Shah Alam MP for three terms but contested in Titiwangsa in the 2022 polls, where he lost to Umno vice-president Johari Ghani by 4,632 votes.
Johari is serving his second term as Titiwangsa MP, and is the minister for investment, trade and industry and FT Umno chief.
Battle lines being drawn
Syaza said the political landscape for GE16 was already being shaped, with reports that BN plans to contest for 115 seats lending credence to the likelihood of three-cornered fights among PH, BN and Perikatan Nasional.
“If this happens, the only way to preserve the PH-BN working relationship is through a civilised post-election pact,” she said.
She said the absence of an election alliance could lead to an ugly campaign period and affect future cooperation within a “coalition of convenience”.