Akademi Nusantara’s Azmi Hassan said Rafizi appears to be positioning himself and waiting to be sacked from PKR, but the party is unlikely to do so anytime soon.
Azmi said remaining in PKR leaves Rafizi in limbo, especially with his prospects of reconciling with the top leadership bleak following his defeat to Nurul Izzah Anwar in the deputy presidency race.
“If he’s sacked, then he can claim a higher moral ground. But I don’t think PKR will give Rafizi this luxury,” he told FMT.
“I think (the party elections last year) marked the end of his journey in PKR. I don’t think there’s any way for Rafizi to reconcile.”
Azmi also said allowing Rafizi to continue criticising the PKR leadership was strategically safer for the party. It only has to wait until the next general election (GE16) when the party can opt not to nominate him as a candidate.
He said PKR’s best option was to tolerate Rafizi’s actions for now, as taking stronger disciplinary action against the Pandan MP could backfire.
Expelling him now would also lead to the party losing one seat in the Dewan Rakyat while Rafizi is free to remain as an independent MP or join another party.
Rafizi has been openly critical of party president and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and his government, including over the shareholding controversy involving Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission chief Azam Baki.
On Sunday, Rafizi reportedly told Sin Chew he will defend his Pandan parliamentary seat at GE16 but was unlikely to contest as a PKR candidate.
He also said he would not join a “third force”, set up a new party, or work with former Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin.
Rafizi lacks grassroots support
Azmi said Rafizi would face a tough time trying to defend his Pandan seat for a third term without the backing of a party like PKR as he lacked grassroots support.
He said Khairy was more widely popular than Rafizi but also recognised that he would need to run as a party’s candidate in order to win.
“Rafizi doesn’t have a strong political base in terms of grassroots support,” Azmi said, arguing that Rafizi’s landslide victories in Pandan in the 2013 and 2022 elections were largely due to PKR’s machinery.
Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia expected Rafizi to “test the market” by trying to defend his seat as an independent candidate in GE16, possibly alongside allies like former PKR vice-president Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad.
He said Rafizi’s popularity, particularly among urban voters, would be insufficient to translate into a political force.
Mazlan also said there was a growing likelihood of disciplinary action from PKR following Rafizi’s sustained criticism of Anwar and the government.
However, he said, PKR should just wait until the parliamentary term ends and respond democratically if Rafizi emerges as a direct competitor in GE16.