Ilham Centre said GRS had the advantage of incumbency as the state government and Hajiji’s image as a moderate leader who was acceptable to parties across the divide.
As a result, GRS will dominate in seats like Hajiji’s Sulaman, Karanaan, Kuala Penyu and Membakut, among others.
“GRS is expected to garner at least 26 seats out of the 55 contested, which would make it the party with the most number of seats than others.
“This would allow GRS to hold negotiations with other parties and independent candidates, to bolster their majority (in hopes of forming the state government),” it said in a statement today.
The think tank said there were 13 other seats that were open to all candidates.
A party will need to win 37 seats in the polls to attain a simple majority to form the next state government.
Ilham Centre said Warisan remained strong in the east coast but the party had not built enough momentum to create a massive wave of support across the state.
It said former chief minister Shafie Apdal’s party stood a chance to wrest several swing seats, including those in urban areas.
It also said there was an observable wind of change among Chinese voters in seats like Likas, Inanam, Luyang, Kapayan and Api-Api, all of which were held by Pakatan Harapan previously.
It cited disappointment with the ruling coalition in the areas of economy, cost of living, and corruption, with PH’s campaign events in city areas garnering a less enthusiastic reception compared with previous state elections.
“If this wave of protest grows, PKR may lose Inanam and Api-Api while DAP’s Likas, Luyang and Kapayan seats will hang by a thread,” it said, adding that PH only had four comfortable seats at the moment.
Ilham Centre said Barisan Nasional is expected to win nine seats, and any more than that would be considered a bonus.
Perikatan Nasional stands a chance in Karambunai and Sugut, which are being contested by state PAS chief Aliakbar Gulasan and Sabah PN chief Ronald Kiandee, respectively.
“If PN fails to win these two seats, it would be a massive wake-up call for the coalition,” it said.
It said a low voter turnout tomorrow would benefit the incumbents, while it expects many out-of-state voters not to return for this state election.