Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said that a flexible approach tailored by state could work if BN managed voter perceptions and maintained ties with PH at the federal level.
He said BN could go solo in strongholds like Melaka and Johor, and partner with PH in states where PH or Perikatan Nasional (PN) hold the advantage such as Selangor, Penang and Kelantan.
“To make this strategy work, BN must clearly explain its position so that the public understands the rationale behind adopting different approaches in different states.
“At the same time, the strategic dialogue between BN and PH needs to be intensified to ensure coordinated action and maintain the stability of the unity government,” Awang Azman told FMT.
He warned that if poorly handled, the “friends at the federal level, rivals at the state level” approach could be seen as hypocritical and cause a loss of confidence in BN’s integrity.
He also said that the move risked alienating PH component parties, especially DAP and PKR, potentially undermining unity and cooperation at the federal level.
Last Saturday, Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan was reported to have said that BN might contest solo in the Melaka election expected next year.
He said a thorough study would be conducted beforehand, as political dynamics and formulas differ from state to state.
Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said BN going solo in Melaka would come as no surprise, describing it as a “warning shot” for Amanah and PH.
Amanah had previously demanded an equal number of seats for the Melaka election, including in constituencies currently held by Umno.
Azmi said the prior agreement between BN and PH had established that incumbent parties would retain the right to contest their seats, adding that Amanah should not overreach in its demands.
“In Melaka, BN holds the incumbency, having won 21 seats in the last state election. These should remain with BN and be agreed upon by PH.
“My concern is that Amanah is being used as a proxy to pressure BN into going solo.”
It was reported last week that the Hang Tuah Jaya Amanah division had passed a resolution at its annual meeting, urging PH to prepare for an independent contest.
Earlier, Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh said in a Facebook video that BN was ready to face PH in a contest, even though they are allies at both the federal level and in Melaka.