Joanne Lin of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute said the bloc’s ability to act as one was constantly being tested, especially as member states took different sides on key issues such as the South China Sea.
Lin said countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam want a firmer stand against China, while others prefer caution or even side with Beijing.
“Asean’s unity is always being questioned. That approach really undercuts Asean’s collective leverage,” she told FMT.
She said that as Asean chair, Malaysia might need to explore “any innovative means that they can think of, maybe even issue-based agreements rather than any single binding text”.
At a closed-door briefing in Tokyo, geopolitical and defence policy analyst Ken Jimbo of Keio University warned that internal divisions made Asean vulnerable to China’s divide-and-rule strategy.
“If China sees differences of interest among Asean member states, it can effectively employ divide-and-rule tactics,” he said.
“There should be more consensus-building. If Asean ignores the Filipino position (on the South China Sea), the Philippines might tilt heavily toward the US and alliance politics, which could become very difficult for Asean to manage.”
Jimbo acknowledged that unity remained fragile, especially between claimant and non-claimant states in the South China Sea, but he was optimistic that Asean could manage this fragile balance.
US-China trade war
Lin said Asean must send a clear and united message when US secretary of state Marco Rubio attends the upcoming post-ministerial conference.
“Asean really wants a meaningful, long-term US economic engagement and not just military cooperation or symbolic visits,” she said.
“A more united front will definitely help Asean to shape the future of trade and the technology frameworks in the region.”
On Monday, US president Donald Trump announced new tariffs of up to 40% on a growing number of countries, including six Asean countries.
Among the hardest hit are Myanmar and Laos (40%), Thailand and Cambodia (36%), Indonesia (32%) and Malaysia (25%). Vietnam, which has secured a separate deal with Washington, saw its rate reduced to 20%.
Jimbo said Asean must also be firm in pressing the US to stabilise trade ties or risk being pulled deeper into China’s economic orbit, something that might later prompt backlash from Washington.
“Southeast Asia should step up in pressuring the US. If the US walks away, it must understand the consequences: it is losing Southeast Asia.
“We are tilting towards other nations, most likely China, because China is offering so much. And in a way, the US is actually causing that shift. Then the US will feel compelled to respond,” he said.
China currently offers Asean extensive economic incentives through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative for infrastructure investment, and the Asean-China Digital Trade Protocol to deepen digital and trade integration.