asean gcc — Key themes discussed by Asean leaders at the bloc’s 46th summit in Kuala Lumpur last month included regional resilience and strategic diversification. (Bernama pic)

PETALING JAYA:

As US-China geopolitical tensions escalate across multiple fronts, from tariffs to technology disputes, Asean finds itself navigating the complexities of balancing its ties with the world’s two largest economies.

The 10-member bloc depends on US investments and access to Western markets, while China, its top trading partner, has become deeply embedded in its supply chains.

Denis Hew, senior fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said Asean’s ability to stay neutral is shrinking fast, with China’s economic reach across Southeast Asia constantly growing.

“The US is becoming more protectionist, but it’s gone beyond that. It’s beginning to undermine the existing economic order,” he said, pointing to the weakening of institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the UN.

“China’s trade and production linkages with Asean have grown significantly, making the relationship an important part of the region’s economic landscape.”

He warned that without stronger internal cohesion, Asean risks being shaped more by outside powers than its own priorities.

Navigating a shifting global order

Economist Jeffrey Sachs, a professor at Columbia University, said the global order is shifting towards multipolarity, with Asia coming to the fore after a long era of Western dominance.

He said Asean should resist the pressure to pick sides, and that global powers must learn to work with the 10-nation bloc and other similar groupings around the world.

Tricia Yeoh of the University of Nottingham Malaysia said Asean must rethink how it engages with the US, especially in the light of Washington’s inconsistent approach to the region. It should also not rely too much on China, she added.

Yeoh said Asean must build broader ties with regions such as the EU, Latin America and Africa.

“These global ties will strengthen Asean’s resilience in the face of growing conflict and deepening uncertainty—not just in economics and trade, but also in security and cultural spheres,” she said.

Diversifying through strategic summits

Asean, for its part, is trying to avoid being boxed in. The regional bloc recently held its first Asean-Gulf Cooperation Council-China Summit, aimed at strengthening trade and connectivity.

This trilateral push reflects Asean’s strategy to avoid dependence on any one power and instead anchor stability through a broad web of partnerships.

However, this strategy of non-alignment is not something new.

As far back as in 1970, Malaysia, then under prime minister Abdul Razak Hussein, led efforts to promote Asean’s neutrality.

The Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (Zopfan), was formalised two years later, affirming Asean’s commitment to remain free from external interference amid the ongoing Cold War tensions.

Sachs said Zopfan remains relevant, and the region must stay open to all without being pulled into global conflict.

With the room for neutrality narrowing, Asean is left walking a tightrope. However, that does not mean it is powerless.

“If Asean can get its act together and integrate deeper, it can be a formidable economic entity. Some estimates suggest that by 2030, this could be a US$4 trillion regional economy, the fourth largest in the world, if integrated,” Hew said.

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Asean’s balancing act in an era of US-China rivalry

Analysts say Asean must adapt to a shifting global order by diversifying partnerships and resisting pressure to align too closely with any one superpower.