Ilham Centre said that based on its survey, the “UmDAP Mantap” label that had been bandied about had a more negative impact.

“It would have been more strategic if it was handled by the Barisan Nasional machinery,” the centre said in a report today.

Ilham Centre also said the alliance between Umno and DAP – once bitter rivals – remained a sensitive issue among Malay voters.

It said it found it interesting that BN took the unusual step of not responding to the opposition’s attempts to vilify the Umno-DAP alliance, “while Amanah was tasked to respond to attacks by Perikatan Nasional”.

Separately, the think tank said PN had racialised local issues, such as the pollution caused by pig farms, to woo Malay voters.

“While such narratives are risky, it seemed to have been effective with the context of the local demography,” it said.

Malays make up 55.97% of the 31,940 voters in Ayer Kuning.

The by-election tomorrow will see a three cornered fight among BN’s Yusri Bakir of Umno, PN’s Abd Muhaimin Malek of PAS, and Parti Socialis Malaysia’s KS Bawani.

It follows the death on Feb 22 of Umno assemblyman Ishsam Shahruddin, who had won the seat in the last general election with a 2,213-vote majority in a five-cornered contest.