Penang-born Woo Wing Thye, a former United Nations adviser for East Asian economies, said Asean is currently too small to face global economic pressures on its own.

He proposed a neutral East Asian alliance, supported by the European Union, as a practical safeguard amid intensifying global rivalries.

“Asean, Japan, and South Korea should form a coalition of rational thinking to uphold global rules and the founding principles of the United Nations,” Woo said during a talk on the US trade war at the Penang Institute here.

Woo predicted that if such a bloc materialises, Asean’s economy could grow to twice the size of the US or China by 2045, which he said would neutralise the growing US-China trade war.

“Eventually, one of them (US or China) would join the bloc to avoid being left out – and the other would follow suit to avoid being marginalised,” he said.

Asean is the fifth-largest economic bloc globally with a GDP of US$3.8 trillion and a population of 680 million in 2023.

Woo also stressed that wealthier Asean nations must support less developed members to prevent them from falling under US or Chinese influence.

On April 2, US president Donald Trump announced stiff tariffs on scores of countries, including Malaysia.

With financial markets crashing, Trump did a U-turn by pausing implementation of the duties for 90 days on all affected countries except China, which has been punished with a 145% tariff for “showing disrespect”.

China has since retaliated with a 125% tariff on US imports.

On the current 90-day pause on US tariffs, Woo said it might become permanent for most countries, with China remaining the primary target.

“Trump may impose selective tariffs, but not a blanket approach like his earlier Muslim travel ban. He might randomly target a few countries for unclear reasons,” he said.

“Trump is not a deep strategist, but he is reactive and outcome-focused. When he sees it doesn’t work, he stops. It’s very rational,” he said.